Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Betting Tip Storm -12 Handicap – 3rd October 2020

Storm to power their way past the stuttering Eels in week 1 of the NRL finals

Christian Welch / Storm ©imago images / AAP 27.09.2020

Australia Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Australia
3rd October 1050hrs
Rugby League – Australia – NRL
Pick Draw
Bookmaker Bet365
Odds: 10/11 odds taken 0418 GMT Wednesday, 29th September

This week 1 finals match in the NRL is a double-chance fixture, which means that the loser will get a second bite of the cherry.

Whoever loses will go to a semi final match against either the Rabbitohs or the Newcastle Knights.

As for the winner, they skip a week and goes straight to the preliminary final match.

This is a huge clash between the Storm who finished the season in 2nd place and the Eels who were right behind them.

Bet at Bet365


Melbourne Storm Preview – Can the scoring power of Storm win the day?

Melbourne Storm were the third-highest scorers this season, finishing only behind Penrith and Sydney in that statistics.

The Storm failed to close out the season with a five match winning streak. They lost by an eight point margin against the St George Illawarra Dragons.

But Melbourne were not at full strength at that one. That’s because they knew their fate in the bracket having already locked down second place.

So they smartly rested some of their key players. So that will account for their loss against an out of form Dragons.

That result then can be excused and the Melbourne Storm are the long odds-on favourites at 1/5 in the match outright to win this week 1 match of the finals* (odds taken 0418 GMT Wednesday, 29th September)..

They will be out for a bit of revenge as well. The Storm suffered a 14-0 loss against the Eels in late August, but there were excuses there too.

At that time, Melbourne had been ravaged by injury problems and were nowhere near their strongest for the trip.

But still, while they didn’t get on the scoreboard, they were not cut asunder by the Eels.

Our betting prediction:
Storm 8-13 winning margin

Bet at Bet365

(odds taken 0418 GMT Wednesday, 29th September)


It is in the attacking department that the Melbourne Storm should thrive and win this.

They averaged 26 points per game across the course of the regular season. That is a long way ahead of the 19 average posted by the Eels.

A lot of the strengths of the season for Parramatta have been in defense. But Melbourne actually bettered them in that area as well.

Melbourne conceded a point per game less on average than the Eels did.

We fully expect the Storm to win this.

There is a -12 handicap line on them at 10/11 odds* (odds taken 0418 GMT Wednesday, 29th September).


Parramatta Eels Preview – Tough ask of the Eels

The Parramatta Eels were the early pace-setters of the NRL season. They won 10 of their opening 12 games and looked the real Premiers deal.


But then they started to have a few wobbles. In their last seven games only returned a W4 L3 record which almost saw them lose out on a top four finish.

They had to win in the final round of the regular season to ensure they locked down a top four. They did that by a narrow four point margin over Wests Tigers.

Eels were under severe pressure from Wests in that match too.

So Parramatta will know that they will need to find plenty more now as the intensity increases.

It was a nailbiter of a finish for them but they are through and can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that they have at least two more games to play.

The Eels are going into this finals match as the 18/5 underdogs* (odds taken 0418 GMT Wednesday, 29th September).

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Parramatta Eels just don’t look anywhere near capable of producing the kind of score that the Melbourne Storm are likely to put up.

This season’s meeting was such a strange game as the Eels got a really unconvincing 14-0 win over the Storm, against much-weakened opposition.

That at least snapped a four match losing streak that they had been on against Melbounre and there had been some heavy defeats in that sequence for them.

Parramatta need to find some serious extra gears if they are going to live with the Storm on the weekend and an Eels +14 handicap is at 10/11* (odds taken 0418 GMT Wednesday, 29th September).


Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Betting Advice

The Storm have to be the pick for NRL betting in this fixture because they were steaming to the finish line.

Is that loss in the final round against the Dragons anything to worry about? Of course not because that was the second-most inexperienced side in the NRL that Melbourne put out for that one.

Eight of the last nine wins for the season that Melnbourne took were by a margin of double figures.


Key Facts – Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Betting Tip

  • Melbourne Storm have won four of the last five meetings with the Eels
  • Melbourne Storm won six of their final eight league games
  • Parramatta Eels finished the season with a W4 L3 record in their final seven


We think that we can trust them to cover a -12 handicap in this one because one they find those cracks against the Eels, the heads of Parramatta, who did have a tough time at the end of the season, are likely to drop.

So that is the first of our NRL betting options for this mouthwatering clash.

As we do expect the Storm to come out on top then a solid Storm 13-18 winning margin has to enter calculations at 9/2* (odds taken 0418 GMT Wednesday, 29th September).


The best betting odds for Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels

Melbourne Storm to win: 1/5 at Bet365
Draw: 25/1 at Bet365
Parramatta Eels to win: 18/5 at Bet365