Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons
20th September 0705hrs
Rugby League – Australia – NRL
Pick Draw
Bookmaker Bet365
Odds: 11/10 odds taken 03:26 GMT, Saturday 19th September
There is nothing riding on this game for either of the teams. Newcastle are heading to the finals as they have secured a top-eight finish.
As for the Dragons, they came up a long way short of that and they are staring in the face of a potential four-match losing streak.
The Knights will be expected to see off the challenge of the visitors after thumping them in May’s meeting.
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Newcastle Knights Preview – Knights can cruise to a win
The Newcastle Knights are W3 L2 in their last five and they are going to the postseason as they have locked down a top-eight finish.
They had started the season with a real bang, but had a couple of wobbles along the way.
Last weekend they were overpowered by the phenomenal attacking presence of the Roosters in a 12-42 loss.
It leaves them overall for the season with a W1 D1 L7 record.
Of the eight teams going to the finals, the Knights were the second-lowest scoring team after round 18, so that will be a concern for them and their chances.
It has been an average of 20 points per game overall this season that the Knights have produced with just two more on average than what that Dragons have come up with.
So we can see this being tight. A Knights -8 handicap looks to be around the right mark at even money for this contest* (odds taken 03:26 GMT, Saturday 19th September).
The average winning margin from them this season in their ten successes has been 16 points. We can’t quite push the handicap line up there for this one.
It has been a 6-3 home record from the Knights this season and after a comfortable win against the Dragons in May, they should follow up.
St George Illawarra Dragons Preview – Dragons on a slump
The St George Illawarra Dragons have lost their last three. Notably, two of those were against teams currently in the bottom four.
The Dragons are on a W6 L12 record for this campaign after suffering an 8-37 loss against the Raiders last weekend.
That is the first time in a while that they have been blown out of the water, because the Dragons have been competitive.
None of their previous four games were settled by a margin of more than four points (W2 L2).
Now a look at the defensive records of the two this season. The Dragons have conceded an average of 21 points per game this season.
In contrast, the Knights have conceded 17 points, so there isn’t much between the two of them in that department either.
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St George Illawarra Dragons suffered a heavy 45-12 loss against Newcastle when they met back in May.
But that snapped a three-match winning streak that St George Illawarra had been on against the Knights.
In fact, the Dragons have won eight of the last ten meetings between the two sides. So without question, they have head to head form.
But does that simply translate to them keeping the game tight under the current circumstances, as they aren’t in winning form?
Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons Betting Advice
We will forecast a tight game here and we would actually go the other way on the handicap line for a +8 on the Dragons at 11/10* (odds taken 03:26 GMT, Saturday 19th September).
Their heavy loss last weekend was out of the ordinary for their run of current form and we expect them to shake that off and stay close.
It’s not as if the Knights have been piling up the points in recent matches, as they have averaged 17 per game in their last four (W2 L2).
Key Facts – Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons Betting Tip
- Newcastle Knights have won just 2 of their last 10 against the Dragons
- Newcastle Knights have qualified for this season’s finals
- St George Illawarra Dragons have lost their last three games
We do expect the Knights to come out on top of course, and a Knights 1-10 winning margin can be snapped up at 9/5 value* (odds taken 03:26 GMT, Saturday 19th September).
So that’s about where we will settle for NRL betting in this one, remembering that there is nothing at stake for either, so it could be a more sedate affair.
The best betting odds for Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Newcastle Knights to win: 1/3 at Bet365
Draw: 22/1 at Bet365
St George Illawarra Dragons to win: 2/1 at Bet365
