Nigeria V Guinea
Wednesday 26 June 2019 – 15:00 Kick-Off
International: Africa Cup of Nations, Group B
Pick: Draw or Guinea Double Chance – 21/20 Bet365
Preview: Nigeria made it a winning start to their Africa Cup of Nations campaign by overcoming Burundi 1-0, but it was a less than convincing performance from the Super Eagles. Next up are Guinea, who were upset by Madagascar in their opening game as they were held to a 2-2 draw. These are the two highest ranked nations in the section and so this could be a crucial encounter in Alexandria, Egypt.
Recent Trends
- Nigeria have now seen six of their last seven matches produce fewer than three goals following their 1-0 win against Burundi.
- Guinea have now failed to win any of their last seven games (D4 L3) following their 2-2 draw with Madagascar first time out.
- It is Guinea, though, who currently lead the head-to-head: W3 D3 L2. Their last meeting ended goalless, in 2017.
Nigeria Preview
Odion Ighalo’s well-taken goal in the closing stages was enough to seal an important win in their first game versus minnows Burundi. We could all be forgiven for expecting more, though. The all round performance felt underwhelming. On another day, Burundi may have even earned a result, as they certainly created one or two good openings. So a positive start as far as the outcome goes, but lots more work to do on the training field ahead of more challenging assignments.
It was a surprise to see the team sheet shorn of both Ahmed Musa and Odion Ighalo. The latter scored within minutes of his introduction, which was frustrating as we needed goals in the game and the 30-year-old’s mobility and intelligent movement would have been an upgrade on the more static Paul Onuachu. There is no guarantee the former Watford man will start here, which seems baffling considering his prolific record during qualifying and recently at club level.
Although I was personally surprised by how sloppy Nigeria were in attack, the 1-0 win did continue a trend that has now seen them fail to score more than a single goal in each of their past four matches. It doesn’t help, of course, when coach Gernot Rohr doesn’t select his best attackers. Captain John Obi Mikel playing in a more advanced role also seemed odd, and it clearly didn’t have the desired effect as he was hauled off in the second half.
On a more encouraging note, the Super Eagles have now kept a clean sheet in four of their last six games. Although they could consider themselves slightly fortunate to have kept one on this occasion, as there wasn’t much super about the defending at times versus fairly sub-standard opponents.
Guinea Preview
Favourites to win their opening group game last time out, Guinea will, understandably, still be left with a sense of disappointment after managing only a 2-2 draw with Madagascar. A goal before half-time from Sory Kaba seemingly sent them on their way to what would have been a big three points, or so it appeared. It all unravelled early in the second half though, conceding twice before the hour mark to leave them somehow chasing a game they had largely dominated.
A penalty from Franςois Kamano saved the day in the end, but Guinea were left to rue some scoring opportunities spurned in a game they were the better side in. The positive will be that they didn’t lose despite trailing with a third of the game remaining, and they will also take huge comfort from the sight of star man Naby Keita appearing midway through the second half.
The Liverpool midfielder missed the end of the domestic season due to injury and wasn’t deemed fit enough to start the opening game, but he will almost certainly begin from the off here and his ability to keep the ball, find a key pass but also make some dangerous, often unmarked runs forward will be a huge boost to their chances.
This team should not be underestimated either, despite a somewhat low-key start to proceedings. Topping a qualifying group containing Ivory Coast – whom they took four points from and scored as many goals against – is no mean feat and warrants utmost respect. The National Elephants went unbeaten in that campaign (W4 D2) and scored in all but one game. Unfortunately the warm up games didn’t go as smoothly; successive losses to Gambia (0-1), Benin (0-1) and Egypt (1-3) now means Guinea have gone seven games without a win (D4 L3).
Betting Tips
Main Selection: Draw or Guinea Double Chance – 21/20 Bet365
Value Pick: Naby Keita to Score Anytime – 15/2 Betfair
Betting Summary
Nigeria are favourites, and perhaps rightly so considering the strength of their squad. I don’t feel Guinea should be written off, though. They are here on merit following an unbeaten qualifying campaign that included a win and a draw against Ivory Coast. Naby Keita’s expected return is a big morale boost as well. Another below-par effort here from Nigeria and it could be punished.
This hasn’t been a tournament of many goals so far but this game at least has some encouraging signs it could buck the trend. Neither team covered themselves in glory defensively in the first games and both displayed a lot of intent to get on the ball and try to create openings. I thought Nigeria’s opener had potential for a few goals but then the manager went and stuck his best forwards on the bench. I cannot see him doing that again here.
