Nigeria V South Africa
Wednesday 10 July 2019 – 20:00 Kick-Off
Africa Cup of Nations Quarter-Finals
Pick: Nigeria to WIN
Odds: 21/20
Bookmaker: Betway
 |
1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/20 | 19/10 | 10/3 |
* (Betting Odds were taken from Betway on July 9th, 2019 at 16:15 GMT)
Preview: After stunning virtually everybody with their performance in the previous round, South Africa are bidding to cause another sizable upset at the Africa Cup of Nations. On this occasion they are bidding to claim the scalp of Nigeria inside the Cairo International Stadium.
Africa Cup of Nations Betting at Betway
Nigeria Preview – Super Eagles to reach semi-final number 15?
The nation for the big occasion. A thrilling 3-2 victory over Cameroon in the last round, who were the defending champions and had gone the entire group stage without conceding a single goal, maintained Nigeria’s imperious record when it comes to reaching the quarter-finals. The Super Eagles have now progressed to at least the last-eight in each of their previous thirteen appearances at this tournament.
Perhaps even more impressive has been their track record for converting quarter-finals into semi-finals. On just one occasion, in 2008, have the Nigerians not been among the final four still left standing (that is a remarkable 92% success rate). It only adds to the appeal of Nigeria overcoming South Africa by any means necessary, and odds of 4/9 on them qualifying for the semi-final are unattractive but do make some sense.
Although a defence which has now shipped precisely two goals in its past two games might put any potential progress in jeopardy. The Super Eagles had opened their accounts in Egypt with successive clean sheets, in narrow wins over Burundi (1-0) and Guinea (1-0), but in their last two encounters both Madagascar (L0-2) and Cameroon (W3-2) exploited vulnerabilities in that same rearguard.
On the positive side of things, it would appear the forwards have stumbled on some timely scoring form. A potential Golden Boot is now firmly in Igahlo’s sights after his pair of instinctive finishes versus Cameroon took his tally for the tournament to three goals. Nobody has scored more goals at these finals so far. The 30-year-old remains Nigeria’s biggest threat going forward, so the odds on him producing the first goal of the game, as well as scoring anytime (at 9/2 and 15/8 with Bet365, respectively), hold some appeal.
South Africa Preview – Bafana Bafana to prevail against the odds one more time?
The enigma that is South Africa. After confidently tipping them to get something from their final group game with Morocco (a game they only needed a point from to be assured of progress) only to be left reeling by a goal in the final minute of normal time, I was left watching on in horror as they dumped hosts Egypt out of the competition when I had abandoned all hope in them. Clearly they are a capable side on their day; predicting when that day might be is an altogether different conundrum.
Now, Bafana Bafana are on the verge of a semi-final appearance which would be their first since the 2000 edition of the competition, when finishing in third place. Potentially blocking their pathway on this occasion are Nigeria, whom they haven’t lost to in their past five encounters (W1 D4). And after eliminating the tournament favourites in the previous round, the atmosphere within camp must be one of supreme confidence.(They’re 9/5 with Unibet to qualify for the semi-final)
While very few people correctly predicted Stuart Baxter’s South Africa would safely come through their clash with the host nation, there has, somewhat ironically, been a number of predictable patterns about his team’s performances at these finals. All four of their matches have been goalless at half-time, for example. Each of those games followed the same pattern of a single goal being scored after the interval.
Betfair offer 12/5 on Exactly 1 Match Goal, with the same bookmaker pricing the 0-0 half-time correct score at 11/10. However thin those odds might appear, both bets do have a 100% strike rate in games involving South Africa at this tournament. Meanwhile, the winning goal against Egypt was scored by a player making his first appearance of the competition. Thembinkosi Lorch produced a decisive finish in the 85th minute to seal a momentous victory and the 25-year-old is 12/1 to repeat the trick again, by coming off the bench to score the last goal of the game.
Nigeria V South Africa Key Facts:
- Nigeria have won four of their five matches in 2019 by a one-goal margin.
- Each of South Africa’s four games at this tournament produced exactly one goal.
- South Africa (W1 D4) are unbeaten in the previous five meetings with Nigeria.
Betting Summary
South Africa’s four games so far have produced exactly one goal. The same statistic applied in Nigeria’s opening two – the 3-2 scoreline against Cameroon in the last round was a true anomaly. Moreover, both of South Africa’s victories in Egypt have come by a 1-0 scoreline, while four of Nigeria’s five wins in 2019 were by a single-goal margin. So whichever side comes out on top, it seems inevitable the final score will be close.
South Africa naturally deserve a huge amount of credit for disposing of Egypt in the last round. Although there was an element of smash and grab to their victory. Looking at the bigger picture as well, their displays at these finals have been dogged but largely uninspiring. From an attacking perspective, they were essentially anonymous in their match-ups with Ivory Coast and Morocco.
The same cannot be said for Nigeria, who were slightly frustrating to begin with but always seem to carry an attacking threat. Their mixture of quick, fleet-footed midfielders help to complement a predatory striker in Odion Ighalo. It might be a predictable slog but the superior firepower in Gernot Rohr’s Super Eagles should see them home in this game. They can be backed at 12/5 to win by a one-goal margin.
