Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Rafael Nadal
16th September 10:00hrs
Tennis – ATP Rome – Rome
Pick Nadal -6.5 Games Handicap
Bookmaker Unibet
Odds: 11/10 odds taken 0119 GMT Tuesday, 15th September
After taking a pass on the US Open, Rafael Nadal will be back in action this week as he lines up in the draw at ATP Rome.
It’s an all-Spanish affair for his opening match as he takes on Pablo Carreno-Busta who has been one of the best performers of this limited 2020 calendar year.
But still, Busta is a massive underdog here as he takes on his compatriot.
Table of Contents
Pablo Carreno-Busta Preview – Can Busta bust out a win over Rafa?
It’s not been a bad year from the popular Pablo Carreno-Busta who has won six of his last eight matches.
He is in the positive of a 12-7 match win/loss record for the year.
After the long break, he returned to action at the ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati event hosted in New York and was dumped out in the second round there.
But then Carreno-Busta put together a great run of form at the same venue, to reach the semi finals of the US Open.
It was he that benefited from the tournament favourite Novak Djokovic getting kicked out of this year’s US Open.
Carreno-Busta lost in the semi finals at Flushing Meadows to Alexander Zverev, but he didn’t go down without a fight.
In fact, the Spaniard had won the opening two sets there and was in a prime position, but he couldn’t sustain the effort.
Pablo Carreno-Busta has never beaten Rafael Nadal before, having met the Grand Slam great five times.
They have met this year already as they were paired up in the round of 32 at the Australian Open, but Nadal won that in straight sets.
So far from those previous meetings, Carreno-Busta has managed to take just one set off of Nadal.
But what makes this rematch interesting is that Busta clearly has form and Nadal is coming in competitively cold.
Cna PCB pull off a shock win as the 10/1 underdog in the match outright* (odds taken 0119 GMT Tuesday, 15th September)?
Rafael Nadal Preview – Will Nadal ease back into winning ways?
Rafael Nadal had a great start to the new year, which started with a runner-up spot in the Final of the ATP Cup against Novak Djokovic.
He then had a run to the quarter-finals of the Australian Open where he was ousted in the by Dominic Thiem in four sets.
Nadal then got his first and only (so far?) title of 2020 on the board when he claimed the title in Acapulco, Mexico on the hard court.
So that tournament at the end of March is the last competitive match that Rafael Nadal has played.
He declined to go to this year’s US Open because of health risk concerns.
In the set betting market for this one, a Nadal 2-0 is at 1/4 odds-on so there’s not great value around on backing him* (odds taken 0119 GMT Tuesday, 15th September).
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So we have to look elsewhere for that and the best option that we see wold be considering a Nadal -6.5 game handicap for 11/10* (odds taken 0119 GMT Tuesday, 15th January).
But again, that’s expecting him to pretty much walk back into action from a cold start, against a player who has been carrying form.
So this is a fascinating fixture, with Nadal returning as the two-time reigning champion because after all, this is on clay and we know what happens when Nadal and clay meet.
Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Rafael Nadal Betting Advice
We have to take the form of Carreno-Busta into contention here and it would be reasonable to assume that Nadal may need a match or two to get out some rustiness.
So we are going to push the boat out in his one and at least back Busta to get a seat on the board.
We don’t see him winning on clay against Nadal, but a Nadal 2-1 in set betting at least puts a bit of meat on the bone at 4/1* (odds taken 0119 GMT Tuesday, 15th January).
Key Facts – Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Rafael Nadal Betting Tip
- Pablo Carreno-Busta reached the semi finals of the US Open last week
- Pablo Carreno-Busta has only taken 1 set off Nadal in previous meetings
- Rafael Nadal has won all five previous meetings with Carreno-Busta
Because Busta has come up short against Nadal in each of their previous meetings, he can’t be supported outright.
He does not have a great track record either at the ATP Rome event, so while he was in the form of his life at Flushing Meadows, he’ll probably fall short.
The best betting odds for Pablo Carreno-Busta vs Rafael Nadal
Pablo Carreno-Busta to win: 10/1 at Bet365
Rafael Nadal to win: 1/20 at Bet365
