Portugal Vs France
Portugal Vs France Wednesday 23 June, 2021 – 20:00
UEFA Euro 2020, Group F
Pick: Draw
Odds: 2/1
Bookmaker: BetFred
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 21 June 2021)
Preview: All to play for heading into the final batch of matches in Group F. France top the group, and will qualify with a point, but only marginally ahead of Portugal who they meet in Budapest for a fixture which has become synonymous for its low-scoring nature.
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Table of Contents
Portugal – A Seleção with something to proving following German humbling?
The last time a team who were defending their European Championship crown went out in the group stage at the following tournament were Greece, who famously overcame Portugal in the 2004 final before finishing bottom of their group four years later. Now, it is A Selecao verging on the same ignominy. A last place finish in Group F an improbable, rather than impossible, outcome for the 2016 winners.
Portugal will progress to the next round with victory over France – who they have beaten once across the team’s previous thirteen meetings (D1 L11), which was in the final of Euro 2016. Possibly as group winners should Germany fail to beat Hungary. That feels a taller order, though, after witnessing the massacre that was Portugal’s crushing 4-2 defeat at the hands of the Germans on Matchday 2.
That was the first time in European Championship history a defending champion conceded four in the same game. Fernando Santos’ side weren’t entirely convincing versus Hungary either, taking until the 84th minute to make a breakthrough. Yet Ronaldo has three goals thus far and Portugal five in all. So the Portuguese have clearly done something right even if their fate remains in the balance.
France – Les Bleus confident of progression ahead of favourable match-up?
Despite the surprising failure last time out, when only managing to draw 1-1 with Hungary at this same venue, France remain in a commanding position to progress out of the ‘Group of Death’ largely on account of beating Germany 1-0 in their opening game. So long as they pick up at least a point from their final group game, a spot in the next round is theirs – and the omens suggest they are well placed to do so.
Following the stalemate with Hungary, France are now unbeaten across their previous eleven matches at a major tournament, winning seven and drawing four. Les Bleus are, however, winless across six group stage games on the final matchday, the last three of which all resulting in 0-0 draws. On a more encouraging note, though, they have only lost one of their last thirteen meetings with Portugal (W11 D1).
France have looked a little too casual until this point. Come the end of Matchday 2, Deschamps’ men ranked a mere 16th for Expected Goals For (2.2) but a more respectable fifth for Expected Goals Against (1.3). There is still a scenario which could see them finish third, which isn’t desirable, so some urgency is needed in their final group outing – which, based on past history, is expecting a lot.
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Portugal Vs France Betting Advice
The fact Portugal, and more specifically Fernando Santos, had seemingly no answer to the German onslaught last time was disconcerting. I suspect lessons will have been learnt – it would be alarming if that weren’t the case – and they can probably rest easy in the knowledge France, who have so far played in a measured manner, are unlikely to enact a repeat performance.
Portugal Vs France – Key Facts:
- Since 2015, Portugal vs France has averaged 0.5 goals (excluding those scored in extra-time) across four matches, while only one of the previous seven meetings saw both teams score.
- Portugal boast a wretched record in this fixture, winning one of the last thirteen meetings (D1 L11), although did win the most important: the final of Euro 2016.
- France are without a win across each of their past six Matchday 3 matches at major tournaments (D3 L3), drawing each of the last three 0-0.
After seeing how open the game between Portugal and Germany was, the natural inclination will be to back goals. However, it is worth remembering how well France nullified Germany in the opener, which Les Bleus won 1-0. Furthermore, meetings between Portugal and France tend to be low-key affairs: the last four produced just two goals inside 90 minutes, two of which ended goalless. So it promises to be tight.
Best Betting Odds – Portugal Vs France
Portugal – 29/10 (Betfair)
Draw – 2/1 (BetFred)
France – 6/5 (PaddyPower)
