Qarabag V Linfield Betting Tips: Qarabag & Over 2.5 Goals – 29 August 2019

End of the road beckons for brave Linfield

Europa League Tips

Qarabag V Linfield

Thursday 29th August 2019 – 17:00 Kick-Off
UEFA Europa League
Pick: Qarabag & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 13/20
Bookmaker: Betway

1 X 2
1/10 29/4 51/2

* (All betting odds displayed were correct as of 26th August 2019 at 00:30)

Preview: A huge upset was seen in Northern Ireland last week, as Linfield stunned Qarabag to earn a 3-2 victory that leaves them well-placed to reach the group stage of the Europa League for the first time in their history. Now they need only to avoid defeat in Azerbaijan, which could be a lot easier said than done.

UEFA Europa League Betting with 22Bet


Qarabag Preview – Home comforts catalyst for second leg revival?

It was supposed to be straightforward. Qarabag, who are the reigning Azerbaijan champions and have held that honour for the past six seasons in a row, were as short as 1/25 to qualify from this tie and, in turn, reach their sixth consecutive group stage of a major European competition. Yet a shock 3-2 defeat in Northern Ireland last week has left them with more work to be done than many would have envisaged ahead of this return leg.

Were it not for a 92nd minute penalty, the task at hand would have been even greater. As it is, Qarabag now know that any low-scoring victory will be enough to see them through, and that is very much a distinct possibility based on their formidable home record. Since playing in their first UEFA qualifying match back in 2009, the team nicknamed “The Horsemen” have played 34 times at home and won 22 of them (W22 D9 L3).

The prospects of Qarabag keeping a clean sheet are also healthy; of the last ten visiting sides in qualifying matches only, just two – BATE Borisov (0-1 in 2018) and APOEL (0-2 in an earlier Champions League qualifier), both in defeat – have even managed to score past the hosts. This season alone has seen them record to nil victories over Partizani (2-0) and Dundalk (3-0).

So the likelihood of a comeback coming to fruition for the Azerbaijan champs would appear very high. As I highlighted last week when previewing the first leg, this is a team that is prone to producing disappointing efforts on their travels. Back at home, though, they tend to be much more consistent and it would be a big surprise were they not to dominate this second leg.

Qarabag & BTTS



Linfield Preview – Northern Ireland champions to perform more miracles?

Not to diminish from what was a huge victory, one that will go down as the most memorable in the club’s recent European history, but could Linfield live to regret that concession of a penalty right at the very death of last week’s first leg? Even so, bookmakers were quick to shorten their odds considerably in the To Qualify market with the Northern Ireland title holders now into 11/2 with PaddyPower.

At 3-1 up approaching the end of normal time, they had put themselves in an unexpectedly powerful position to qualify. That late goal made a big difference however, as it now leaves them with very little margin for error in Azerbaijan. In simple terms, though, all they need to do is avoid losing. Which sounds a lot easier in writing.

For a team that has lost five of its past seven away matches in Europe before this season’s historic run (they have already become the first team from Nothern Ireland to feature in a EL Play-Off), grinding out another positive outcome won’t be straightforward. As for the two occasions a defeat was somehow avoided, both ended in draws – versus Cork City of Ireland (1-1) and La Fiorita from San Marino (0-0) – and neither were against opponents anywhere near the standard of Qarabag.

However, this season has already seen them end a five year wait for an away win in Europe when beating Montenegro champions Sutjeska (2-1) in the round prior. While earlier in the competition, HB Torshavn of the Faroe Islands were held to a 2-2 draw. Again, neither are remotely close to the quality of Qarabag. Norway’s Rosenborg, however, certainly are and they encountered no problems whatsoever racking up a 4-0 scoreline at home to David Healy’s side during a first round Champions League encounter in July.


Qarabag V Linfield Key Facts:

  • Qarabag are bidding to reach the group stages of a European competition for a sixth season running, winning three of their previous seven matches as the home side in qualifiers (W3 D2 L2).
  • After failing to win any of their past eight away matches in Europe (D3 L5), Linfield beat Sutjeska 2-1 in Montenegro in the previous round.
  • Linfield have already become the first Northern Irish team to feature in a EL Play-Off.


Betting Summary

Boasting a formidable record as the home side in European qualifiers, Qarabag should not only be securing the win in this second leg but doing so with several goals in hand. Just two teams have scored past them in their previous ten home qualifying matches, recording to nil victories over Partizani (2-0) and Dundalk (3-0) already in this competition.

Nobody in Northern Ireland will forget their stunning victory in the first leg anytime soon but that late concession of a penalty, to win 3-2 instead of 3-1, has left the door wide open for their opponents. Linfield need to at least a draw now because of that late goal, which, for a team that has only managed to avoid defeat in four of its last nine away matches in Europe (and all four were against sides nowhere near the calibre of Qarabag) seems a huge ask.

No team qualifies consistently for the group stages of European competitions unless they have some serious quality in their ranks. The performance of Qarabag last week was extremely poor but not entirely surprising; this has been a team with a habit for struggling on their travels only to regularly deliver results at home. The hosts are the classier outfit and should make amends for that horrow show in Northern Ireland by convincingly beating Linfield.