Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
16th November 1400hrs
Tennis – London – ATP World Tour Finals 2020
Pick Nadal to win
Bookmaker Paddy Power
Odds: 4/7 odds taken 06:12 GMT Monday, 16th November
This is a big battle at the ATP Finals on Tuesday between Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem. The winner of this match will be expected to take the group.
That is because they both won their opening fixtures at the London indoor event.
While they are both expected to qualify from the group at the end of the day (which also has Stefanos Tsitispas and Andrey Rublev) this will be a chance at revenge for Nadal who lost to Thiem at this year’s Australian O
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Rafael Nadal Preview – Nadal to power to second success?
Rafael Nadal had no problem overcoming Andrey Rublev in his first match at this year’s ATP World Tour Finals.
It was a comfortable, straight sets victory for the Spaniard. Nadal looked in a totally dominant mood as he tried to earn his first title at this tournament.
He now moves on to what is expected to be a much tougher contest as he faces Dominic Thiem.
Nadal does lead the head to head between the two players and the Spaniard is the favourite at 4/7 in the match outright for Tuesday* (odds taken 06:12 GMT Monday, 16th November).
The most recent meeting that Nadal and Thiem had was at this year’s Australian Open, a match that Nadal lost in four sets.
That left his head to head record against the Austrian at 9-5. So he has been challenged pretty well by Thiem.
Over the last four matches (three of them Grand Slam events) things are even between them at two wins each.
All but two of the previous 14 meetings have been on clay.
They are 1-1 from their hard court meetings.
Nadal won this year’s French Open after not having had any warm up event because of the season’s break.
That was a remarkable accomplishment for him once again at Roland Garros.
He hasn’t had a lot of tennis under his belt since the restart, aside from that French Open title run.
He has only played the Paris Masters since then when he was beaten at the semi final stage by Alexander Zverev in straight sets.
Still, Nadal is rolling as the favourite for Tuesday’s match against Thiem and in the set betting market a Nadal 2-0 is short priced at 5/4* (odds taken 06:12 GMT Monday, 16th November).
Dominic Thiem Preview – Will Thiem find the defence against Nadal?
Breaking the defence of Rafael Nadal is not an easy thing at all against the left-hander.
But Dominic Thiem has started the campaign with a win under his belt as he got the better of Stefanos Tsitsipas in his opening fixture.
That was a match that was taken to three-sets however. Thiem took the opening set in a tight tiebreaker, before letting the second one slip.
He will probably have been a bit frustrated by almost letting the opening set of that match go to Tsitsipas though.
But he recovered confidently enough against the Greek player, who is also the ATP Finals defending champion, to be the match-winner.
To be fair, on balance, Thiem was the more dominant of the two players throughout the entire match.
So that sets up this huge clash. For tennis betting in the match outright Thiem is at 11/8 for the win* (odds taken 06:12 GMT Monday, 16th November).
Since the restart, Theim has had a lot more action and time on the court than his opponent Nadal has done.
His big career moment came in winning the US Open 2020 title against Alexander Zverev.
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Dominic Thiem was the one to break the dominance of the big four in Grand Slam tournaments with that five-set victory.
It was such an accomplished campaign throughout the event from Thiem.
The Austrian then went to the quarterfinals of the French Open where he was upset over five sets by Diego Schwartzman.
Following those Grand Slam efforts, Thiem has played just one tournament since, losing in the quarter finals of the Vienna Open in straight sets to Andrey Rublev.
He will have his supporters as the 11/8 underdog for Tuesday* (odds taken 06:12 GMT Monday, 16th November).
It’s now about sustaining some dominance over the old guard.
Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Betting Advice
Rafael Nadal has won 86 career titles. Only one of those has happened on an indoor hard court.
But still, we still fancy him to take the match win in this one. He looked fresher and sharper than he usually does at the end of the year.
That’s because of how short and how disjointed 2020 has been.
The 2-0 set betting option for Nadal is a decent 5/4 poke here* (odds taken 06:12 GMT Monday, 16th November).
Key Facts – Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Betting Tip
- Rafael Nadal has never won the ATP World Tour Finals
- Rafael Nadal leads the head to head with Thiem 9-5
- Dominic Thiem has won two of his last four against Nadal
We don’t think that either player will be feeling too much pressure in this one.
Whoever loses will still have a final group match to come to try and lock down a finish inside the top two.
Thiem has generally handled himself well against Nadal, but we don’t see him getting the win.
We saw Stefanos Tsitipas find some cracks in Thiem’s defence on the weekend and the Greek player really should have had the first set wrapped up.
But Thiem was much stronger in the final set. Still, facing Nadal is a different kettle of fish.
The best betting odds for Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem
Rafael Nadal to win: 4/7 at Bet365
Dominic Thiem to win: 11/8 at Bet365
