RB Leipzig Vs Dortmund Betting Tip: Home or Draw/Under 3.5 Goals – 9 January 2021

Another cautious renewal beckons inside Red Bull Arena

Yussuf Poulsen / RB Leipzig ©imago images / motivio 22.12.2020

Germany RB Leipzig Vs Borussia Dortmund Germany

Saturday 9th January 2021 – 17:30 (kick-off)
German Bundesliga
Pick: RB Leipzig or Draw/Under 3.5 Goals
Odds: 1.97
Bookmaker: Betfair (Same Game Multi)
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 6th January 2021)

Preview: The standout fixture in Germany this weekend takes place at the Red Bull Arena where RB Leipzig will seek to extend their unbeaten home record in this season’s Bundesliga, taking on a resurgent Borussia Dortmund.

German Bundesliga Betting at Bet365


RB Leipzig – Nagelmann’s side flying at Red Bull Arena?

Those hoping to witness a competitive Bundesliga title race unfold between now and May, when the 2020/21 German season is scheduled to wrap up, could be relying on RB Leipzig (W9 D4 L1) maintaining form that has made them Bayern Munich’s closest competitor until now. Die Rotten Bullen, currently three points clear of third-placed Bayer Leverkusen, sit two points shy of Hansi Flick’s league leaders.

That gap would have been greater had it not been for results here at the Red Bull Arena, where Julian Nagelsmann’s men have been close to perfection so far. Across their seven Bundesliga home games, RB Leipzig would fail to win only once – that their final fixture of 2020 when slipping up against struggling FC Koln (0-0), while it was also the first time they hadn’t scored more than once on their own patch.

Bayern, meanwhile, are the only team averaging more goals scored at home this season than RB Leipzig (2.29 per home game), while no team gets close to them for goals allowed with just three all season (0.43). They have also seen their stoic backline shutout each of the last four visiting teams – Bremen, Koln, Hoffenheim and Stuttgart – since their 3-3 draw at the Allianz Arena with Bayern on 5 December.


Under 2.5 Goals



Borussia Dortmund – Head-to-head advantage gives them edge?

A change of manager appears to have had the desired effect at Borussia Dortmund (W8 D1 L5). Since handing the reins to Edin Terzic on an interim basis until the end of the season, BVB have registered as many Bundesliga wins during his three games (W2 L1) than Lucien Favre managed through his final five (W1 D2 L2). Now up into fourth, can they maintain this improved output beyond the first matchday of 2021?

The omens certainly suggest they can. Across the pair’s eight previous league meetings, Dortmund have tasted defeat only twice (W4 D2 L2). The four encounters held here at Red Bull Arena have garnered two wins and only one loss for the Black and Yellows, with both successes across of the last two campaigns. Last season, meanwhile, was all about Erling Haaland, the Norwegian bagging both goals in a 2-0 scoreline.

Dortmund have even restricted RB Leipzig to no goals on their last two visits. A third consecutive shutout seems unlikely, though, as while they did beat Wolfsburg to nil in their first match-up of 2021 last week, that marked a first clean sheet in eight league games since a 2-0 scoreline away at newly promoted Arminia Bielefeld on 31 October. BVB have also conceded in all of their past four away fixtures (W2 D1 L1).


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RB Leipzig Vs Borussia Dortmund Betting Advice

A peculiar fixture in the sense that meetings have varied greatly depending on the venue. The club’s have only met on eight prior occasions, with Dortmund bossing the head-to-head thus far (W4 D2 L2). But whereas the four encounters held at Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park have averaged more than four goals, those staged here at the Red Bull Arena have been markedly more conservative at 1.5 per game.


RB Leipzig Vs Borussia Dortmund – Key Facts:

  • No team has registered more wins from home games in the Bundesliga this season than RB Leipzig (W6 D1), keeping four clean sheets in seven said matches.
  • Dortmund have taken 13 from a possible 21 points away from home this season (W4 D1 L2), failing to keep out all of their past four hosts (W2 D1 L1).
  • Four of the pair’s eight Bundesliga meetings were won by Dortmund (W4 D2 L2), including the last two away, while all four held at Red Bull Arena featured no more than two goals.


I don’t envisage RB Leipzig losing. Julian Nagelmann’s men boast the best home record in Germany at this moment in time, winning six of seven such fixtures, and run a tight ship defensively. Their three goals conceded at home is seven fewer than Bayern and Dortmund, for context. Dortmund, though, have shown improvement in this area, averaging a goal conceded per game under Terzic, culminating in a first Bundesliga clean sheet for eight matches last time out against a dangerous Wolfsburg outfit.

Best Betting Odds – RB Leipzig Vs Borussia Dortmund

RB Leipzig – 11/8 (Betfair)
Draw – 13/5 (BetVictor)
Borussia Dortmund – 2/1 (Betway)