South Africa V Namibia
Friday, 28 June 2019 – 21:00 Kick-Off
International: Africa Cup of Nations, Group D
Pick: Namibia or Draw – 7/5 Betfair
Preview: Narrow losses in their opening games has left these two teams facing the very real prospect of early elimination from the competition should either follow it up with another. South Africa are the higher ranked side of the two and will fancy their chances of bouncing back with a win. However, Namibia could consider themselves very unfortunate to be pointless after a spirited performance first time out and will be out to spring a surprise in Cairo, at the Al Salam Stadium.
This will be the seventh encounter between the two nations, in a meeting South Africa has been utterly dominant in, coming out on top five times (W5 D1). Although the prospect of goals are promising, with four of those matches producing both teams scoring.
Recent Trends
- Excluding extra-time and penalty shoot-outs, South Africa have failed to win any of their last five matches (D4 L1) and only one of their previous nine (W1 D7 L1).
- Namibia have won three of the last five games since qualification (W3 L2), although two of those victories were versus sides ranked lower than South Africa.
- South Africa qualified as a runner-up, a point behind Nigeria despite going the whole campaign unbeaten (W3 D3, GF11 GA2).
- Namibia also qualified as a runner-up, a point behind Guinea-Bissau but only ahead of Mozambique by virtue of a superior head-to-head record (W2 D2 L2, GF5 GA7).
South Africa Preview
As opening games of a tournament go, facing Ivory Coast was right up there with the toughest of possible assignments. So to only lose by a single goal will have been bitterly disappointing for South Africa, although it was probably a fair reflection of their performance in a game they were second best in for large periods, despite seeing more of the ball. Now they have it all to do if they’re to progress out of the group.
Although they did strike the woodwork, South Africa rarely troubled the Ivory Coast defence. The statistics make for uninspiring reading: a couple of shots with none on target. It doesn’t necessarily bode well ahead of facing a team that defended resolutely last time out.
Their struggles to create goalscoring opportunities is unlikely to have come as a surprise to supporters however, as while Bafana Bafana did find the back of the net in qualifying on what seemed like a respectable number of times (11), when you factor the weakest team in the section out of the equation – a Seychelles side ranked 196 in the world and whom conceded an astonishing 25 times – then that figures drops to just five, which is a paltry average of one a game.
Therefore this may not be as straightforward as their odds (4/7 to win) would imply. This is, after all, a team that has now won only one of its last six matches (W1 D4 L1) and scored just four times.
Namibia Preview
Whereas their opponents would have few complaints with the outcome of their first game of the tournament, Namibia will have felt incredibly hard done by at the end of their encounter with Morocco. To defend as stoutly as they did, limiting a dangerous team to mainly speculative efforts from distance for 89 minutes, only to concede an own goal at the death will have been difficult for everyone involved to comprehend.
Football can be cruel at times. That defeat could have a demoralising affect on the players, who knew before the tournament begun that points would be precious in a group they were huge outsiders in. Even so they came away from that game with a lot of credit, mainly for their commitment to defending and keeping a lively opponent quiet for much of the game, and should have taken a lot of confidence and belief from the performance at least.
The one criticism of them last time out was a lack of ambition. To cede so much possession and chances, albeit few were clear cut, is a concern when you are not offering much going the other way. And Namibia will need to come out of their shells a little here, with a draw unlikely to benefit them any great amount knowing an even tougher task awaits them in the shape of Ivory Coast in the final group game.
A team ranked 113 do have recent form for overturning to the odds, beating Ghana – who are among the favourites here – 1-0 in their only warm up game. This is also a country that had to battle in a tough qualifying group to make it this far, finishing second in a group where all four teams were separated by only two points.
Betting Tips
Betting Summary
South Africa are ranked considerably higher (72 versus 113) and this perhaps explains their short price, as there is nothing about their recent form that would otherwise suggest they are worthy of such thin odds. No win in their last five games says everything you need to know about a side that weren’t exactly regular scorers in qualifying.
Namibia’s form in qualifying was mixed (W2 D2 L2), but it was in a ultra competitive group and all but one of their fixtures were close with regards to the scores. Their recent form is also no worse than that of their opponents, having actually won three times in the last five (W3 L2). Although the head-to-head does heavily favour South Africa, who came out on top on five of the six occasions they have met each other.
Despite their clear superiority in the fixture, South Africa make me uncomfortable being so short. Namibia have frustrated better sides recently, in Morocco and Ghana, so are not without hope here.
