South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
4th October 0605hrs
Rugby League – Australia – NRL
Pick Rabbitohs -8 handicap
Bookmaker Betfred
Odds: 10/11 odds taken 2216 GMT, Wednesday 30th September
This is the final action from the first week of the NRL finals and this is one of the elimination matches.
It features 6th and 7th placed Rabbitohs and Knights respectively.
With only one point separating the two of them in the final standings, this is expected to be a high-pressure, tight duel.
It is the Rabbitohs, with home soil on their side, who are going as the favourites to collect the match win.
Table of Contents
South Sydney Rabbitohs Preview – Can Rabbitohs turn the tables on the Knights?
It was a decent end to the regular season campaign for the South Sydney Rabbitohs who collected a W6 L2 record in their last eight.
In the final round of action, they produced an emphatic and somewhat unexpectedly large 60-8 win over fellow finalists the Sydney Roosters.
Granted the Roosters were not at full strength for that one, but still, it would have done wonders for the confidence of the Rabbitohs.
So they had some good form down the final stretch and three of their final four wins were by a margin of at least 38 points.
A South Sydney Rabbitohs -8 handicap is at 10/11 odds for this big contest* (odds taken 2216 GMT, Wednesday 30th September).
In the one meeting that they had with the Knights this season, which happened back in August, the Rabbitohs were edged out by a couple of points.
In the last seven meetings between the two teams, the Rabbitohs are well up in the head to head with a W5 L2 record in that sequence.
The Rabbitohs have scored an average of 24 points per league game during this campaign, which is an average of 3 points more per game than the Knights produced.
There were very little between them over the course of the season in terms of defence, but the Rabbitohs just shaded that.
South Sydney were in brilliant form last week, that can’t be argued and if they play anywhere near to that kind of level they should romp home in this fixture.
Newcastle Knights Preview – Form starts to evade the Knights
In round 20 of the regular season, the Newcastle Knights suffered a 36-6 loss against the Titans, who were not a top-eight finisher.
So that was a huge blow for Newcastle who have lost three of their last five games played now. It’s not been a great time for them to have lost their way a bit.
In their last eight, the Knights are W5 L3 and they are going to need a huge lift after that 30-point defeat last weekend against the Titans.
The big worry for them will be about how leaky their defence has been away from home.
They go to the ANZ Stadium on the weekend having conceded a total of 140 points in their last four road games.
That drop in form has left Newcastle as the 5/2 underdogs in the match outright for this contest* (odds taken 2216 GMT, Wednesday 30th September).
Of the teams going to the finals, the Newcastle Knights were the second-lowest scorers.
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Newcastle Knights though may find some solace in having won their last two against the Rabbitohs, scoring exactly 20 points in each of those.
A Knight’s +8 handicap is at 11/10, highlighting how big of an underdog that they are for this contest* (odds taken 2216 GMT, Wednesday 30th September).
It is interesting to see the lack of scoring that the Knights have produced in each of their last three defeats.
In none of those did they manage to score more than 12 points, which shows how much they were able to be shut down by their opponents.
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Betting Advice
This should be a win for the Rabbitohs because they were in great form over the second half of the season, quietly securing their top-eight finish.
They were absolutely brilliant against the Roosters last weekend, cutting the top-four side to shreds, even though the Tricolours weren’t at full strength.
But still, that was a huge fillip of confidence for the Rabbitohs ahead of this one and we have to back them to cover a -8 handicap at that 10/11 quote* (odds taken 2216 GMT, Wednesday 30th September).
Key Facts – South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Betting Tip
- South Sydney Rabbitohs won five of their last seven fixtures
- South Sydney Rabbitohs scored 60 points against the Roosters last weekend
- Newcastle Knights have won the last two against the Rabbitohs
When the Knights have been off recently, they have been off. As dogged as they can be on their day, we don’t see them breaking out of their shell to win this.
But we want to look for a little longer value in our NRL betting and we are going to the winning margin market.
It is there that a Rabbitohs 1-12 winning margin option can be found at 21/10* (odds taken 2216 GMT, Wednesday 30th September).
The best betting odds for South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
South Sydney Rabbitohs to win: 12/1 at Bet365
Draw: 13/5 at Bet365
Newcastle Knights to win: 10/11 at Bet365
