Spain Vs Poland Betting Tip: Over 2.5 Goals – 19 June 2021

Goals in Seville at second time of asking

Spain Spain Vs Poland Poland

Saturday 19th June 2021 – 20:00
UEFA Euro 2020, Group E
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 20/23
Bookmaker: Betfair
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 17th June 2021)

Preview: Group E has been unpredictable so far, with neither Spain or Poland prevailing in their opening fixtures. That’s despite both starting out odds-on favourites against Sweden and Slovakia respectively. Now, it is Spain who are expected to emerge triumphant – will we witness another shock result at La Cartuja in Seville?

UEFA Euro 2020 Betting at Betfair


Spain – La Roja searching for that killer edge?

Group E has been blown wide open, largely because of the result in Seville on Matchday 1 which saw two-time European champions Spain pass up, if you excuse the pun, the opportunity to open their Euro 2020 accounts with a win. Instead Luis Enrique’s side passed and probed their way to a frustrating goalless draw against a resolute Sweden, failing to convert a dominant display into goals.

Since records were first collected in 1980, no team in European Championship history has ever recorded as many passes – 830 – or as much possession – 85% – as Spain did in their opening game. That both came in a 0-0 draw won’t make either statistic fondly remembered by those of a Spanish persuasion, amassing the highest non-penalty xG figure (2.3) of the opening round but spurning all five big chances.

Spain have now failed to score in two of their last three internationals, having also drew 0-0 with Portugal in a pre-tournament friendly. That as many as they did in their previous 51! Meanwhile, they last failed to net in successive outings in 2013. Poland are ideal opponents, though, in which to regain some confidence. La Roja won eight of ten prior meetings (D1 L1), including the last two on home soil by a combined 9-0.


Spain Win & Over 3.5 Goals



Poland – Euro 2016 repeat increasingly unlikely?

The Polish came into these finals in poor form but confident they could progress from a competitive yet favourable group in the knowledge they had reached the last-sixteen at Euro 2016, when they were eliminated on penalties by eventual winners Portugal. It was the former which bore a stronger resemblance in their Group E opener, though, as they fell to a surprise 2-1 loss to outsiders Slovakia.

That loss was compounded by the second-half dismissal of the experienced Grzegorz Krychowiak for two bookable offences. The Lokomotiv Moscow midfielder will now miss this clash with Spain. At that stage the Poles were the ones in the ascendancy, looking to press ahead after levelling proceedings within seconds of the second period restarting, but were punished by conceding moments later.

Now, the situation is critical. Realistically Poland must beat at least one of Spain or Sweden to have any chance of remaining in the tournament, and considering they have only done so versus the former on one of ten previous occasions – way back in 1980 no less – their sense of doom is palpable. Particularly as this team has a single victory to its name, at home to lowly Andorra, in their last eight matches (D3 L4).

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Spain Vs Poland Betting Advice

No one individual could shoulder the brunt of the blame for Spain’s goalless draw with Sweden last time, with five different players spurning five big chances. That they carved out as many clear-cut openings as they did against an opponent which came with the sole intention of defending, should bode well for their chances of an improved result when Luis Enrique’s men face off against beleaguered Poland.


Spain Vs Poland – Key Facts:

  • In the ten previous matches between these countries, only once – in a 1980 friendly – did Spain fail to emerge victorious, winning the last two held in Spain by an aggregate score of 9-0.
  • Spain failed to score for the second time in three matches, as many as they had in their previous 51. This despite creating five big chances and amassing the highest non-penalty xG of all teams on Matchday 1.
  • Poland have now failed to win seven of their past eight games, conceding 2+ goals in six of these but scoring at least once in each of the last seven.


Spain have won eight of ten meetings with Poland. The latter conceded 2+ goals for the sixth game in eight when losing their Euro 2020 opener 2-1 to Slovakia: the seventh consecutive Polish game to see three or more goals. Poland tend to score as well, with their last seven contests seeing both teams score. So in a fixture both will view as must win, there should be goals in Seville at the second time of asking.

Best Betting Odds – Spain Vs Poland

Spain – 4/11 (Betway)
Draw – 4/1 (BetFred)
Poland – 8/1 (PaddyPower)