Spezia Vs Frosinone
Spezia Vs Frosinone Thursday 20 August 2020 – 20:15 Kick-Off
Italian Serie B Play-Off Final (second leg)
Pick: Spezia to WIN
Odds: 27/20
Bookmaker: Unibet
(All betting odds correct at time of writing: 17 August 2020)
Preview: After losing the first leg 1-0 at home, Frosinone have it all to do ahead of this decisive second leg as Spezia, a club whom have previously never set foot in Serie A, set about how best to protect a slender lead at their Stadio Alberto Picco.
Italian Serie B Betting at 22Bet
Table of Contents
Spezia Preview – Players can make history as Serie A promotion beckons?
Much of the groundwork for what could be this club’s first ever promotion to Serie A was laid not merely in the final result from the opening leg, but across the full span of this season. Emmanuel Gyasi’s brilliant solo effort ultimately settled a tense opening leg in Frosinone, however, it was their surprising third-place finish upon the conclusion of this season’s Serie B which could see them rejoice come Thursday night.
There are no away goals rule in these play-offs. Instead, seeds are handed out based on league positions in 2019-20. It means Spezia (3rd – W17 D10 L11) are in an incredibly commanding position heading into this deciding leg, needing only to avoid a two-goal margin of defeat on the night to ensure promotion. Considering the level of consistency this team produced at their Stadio Alberto Picco all season, confidence within the camp will be healthy.
Spezia were beaten in just five of nineteen home matches, finishing having secured more wins than not (W10 D4 L5). Crucially, only one of those losing efforts (vs Trapani, 2-4) was by two clear goals, while only five teams netted more than once. In fact, their defensive record at home (18 conceded from 19) ranked them fourth in the entire second tier, after conceding on average less than a goal per home game.
Frosinone Preview – Comeback appeal dampened by toothless away tendencies?
Trailing ahead of the decisive second leg isn’t anything new for Frosinone (8th – W14 D12 L12), even if it is something coach Alessandro Nesta would rather have avoided. The former AC Milan defensive colossus watched on as his side were also beaten 1-0 at home in the first leg of their semi-final with Pordenone, only to turn the tie around by winning the away encounter 2-0. Will they be able to perform similar heroics?
The task on this particular occasion appears far sterner. Their opponents finished third at the end of this season, ranking them as the top seeds among those competing in these play-offs and handing them a sizeable advantage should the aggregate score end in a tie. In other words, Frosinone must mirror their two-goal margin of victory in the semi-final if they’re to return to Italy’s top table once more.
Unfortunately, the omens are hardly encouraging. During this season’s Serie B endeavours, Frosione could only muster four away wins (W4 D7 L8), leaving them with a strike rate of a mere 21 per cent. Even more damning, however, will be the fact a team who simply must score twice could only do so on three occasions. Furthermore, rock-bottom Livorno were the only outfit to register fewer goals on their travels than Nesta’s men (12, at a rate of 0.63 per game).
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Spezia Vs Frosinone Betting Advice
Have Frosinone passed up their best shot at returning to Serie A? Their record away from home in 2019-20 would hint that it indeed the case, with any recovery effort dependant on them scoring at least twice on the night. The latter objective in particular will look very daunting for a group of players who found only 12 goals in their 19 away matches in Serie B this season.
Spezia Vs Frosinone – Key Facts
- Four teams bettered Spezia for goals scored at home (30) come the end of this season’s Serie B, while only a further three conceded fewer than their 18 in 19 said matches.
- Only Livorno, demoted in last place, notched less away goals in the 2019-20 Serie B season than Frosinone (12 in 19 away games) – though they would win by a two-goal margin on two occasions.
- The fourth head-to-head encounter of the season beckons, however, it is Spezia with the edge. The latter winning two of those meetings, including a 2-0 scoreline at home.
Spezia don’t need to win, but they do appear the most likely side to do so. They were a lot more dependable at home (W10 D4 L5) across the season, winning more often than not, while an average of 0.95 goals conceded per home game suggests they are unlikely to give up much to team which mustered a measly 0.63 goals per away game. The latter are also without joint-leading scorer Federico Dionisi through suspension.
Best Betting Odds – Spezia Vs Frosinone
Spezia – 27/20 (Unibet)
Draw – 21/10 (Betway)
Frosinone – 5/2 (BetVictor)
