Stoke V Aston Villa – Monday 26 December, 2011 (LIVE on SKY SPORTS)

Bent-inspired Villa to spring a Brittania surprise

Premier League Tips

 

Stoke V Aston Villa

Date & Kick-Off: Monday 26 December, 2011 – 19:45 GMT (LIVE on SKY SPORTS 1)

Venue: Brittania Stadium

Opposing Stoke in their own backyard is a very dangerous game. You can raid your kitty whenever they go travelling, mind; but at home, at the Brittania Stadium – in the land of the giants, Stoke City take some beating. So it does kind of look ominous for an Aston Villa side with a strike rate of 1 in 8 away from home in the league this season.

Just one away win all campaign, which was a narrow victory at The Reebok over a Bolton team who at the time were propping up the league, on top of their frailties at the back, and you can’t help but wander whether there is any hope at all for Alex McLeish & Co.

Three of the previous four goals Villa have conceded, in recent defeats to Arsenal and Liverpool, came via dead-ball situation. Now that’s a frighteningly bad omen ahead of their visit to set-piece specialists Stoke, who are big and strong and beast-like in the air; in fact, over half (61%) of the Potters’ total league goals have come via set-plays.

Furthermore, it isn’t as though the Villains go into their live Boxing Day encounter in fine knick. Although they were victorious on their last away outing, beating Bolton 2-1 on 10 December, that remains their only success in six, having suffered d immensely during an excruciating period of fixtures against the top sides.

However, the fact they weren’t thrashed once does at least provide me with some crumbs of comfort; if they can restrict Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham to two goals and Man Utd to just one, teams who predominately attack with the ball at their feet as opposed to the air, Villa should fare better than many envisage at the Brittania – provided they can get it together at set-pieces.

This certainly requires an element of faith, that Alex McLeish has at least improved Villa’s aerial defending in an absurdly short space of time, but I’m willing to take a chance on a team who do defend stoically on the deck and do boast one of the better defensive records in the top flight, conceding just 23 in 17.

Backing Villa on the off-chance they might repel Stoke’s aerial bombardments is extremely precarious indeed, but a crucial factor in this bet is the return of top scorer Darren Bent, who should thrive in a team now boasting pace on the flanks, a team who gave in-form Arsenal a right going over before Christmas before eventually losing 2-1 at Villa Park.

Bent has suffered since the summer following the high-profile departures of wingers Stewart Downing and Ashley Young, rarely touching the ball in some games let alone find himself on the end of chances. He has been feeding off scraps – plain and simple. But that may not be the case for much longer, not if speed merchants Charles N’Zogbia, Gabriel Agbonlahor and Marc Albrighton continue in the same energetic vein when pushing Arsenal close last week.

Against the top sides, Stoke set themselves up to defend in bulk. Against the rest however, teams they instinctively fancy their chances against, they aren’t as meticulous with their organisation, for the simple reason that they show far more ambition. I expect that to be the same on Monday, what with Tony Pulis’ men being the favourites and all, which will grant Villa’s attacking players, whom are gradually growing in stature and confidence, a lot more space and time on the ball to strut their stuff.

Villa should be a constant threat on the counter, in behind a strong and robust Stoke defence that isn’t the quickest; they’re no slouches, but they can be got at with quick movement and dribbling. The return of Bent is also a massive boost as it gives them a genuine outlet, a prolific outlet too, a player with a formidable reputation for finding the onion bag, something Villa have managed just three times in their last six league games.

Recommended Bet: LAY of Stoke @ 2.00 (Betfair)

Value Punts

Aston Villa to WIN @ 10/3 (PaddyPower)

Darren Bent First Goalscorer @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes) (He’s 9/4 to score any time with the same firm!)