Sweden Women V USA Women
Thursday 20 June 2019 – 20:00 Kick-Off
International, FIFA Women’s World Cup
Pick: Sweden +1.5 Asian Handicap – 19/20 Bet365
Group F hasn’t thrown up many surprises so far – or a competitive game of note – but that could very well be about to change in Le Havre at Stade Océane, as Sweden and USA lock horns in a tussle to decide who progresses to the next round as section winners.
The USWNT are the reigning World Cup holders and number one ranked team in the world, so it isn’t all that of a shock to see them as such short favourites here at 2/7, with Sweden a big price at 8/1. This match could be closer than many expect and the draw is available at 19/4 at Bet365.
Sweden
Attempting to halt the United States juggernaut are a Swedish team has plenty to like about it. They are very competitive in near enough every match they play, regardless of opponent or venue. This is, after all, a country ranked inside the world’s top ten at number 9, and for good reason thanks in part to some respectable form in 2019 (W5 D2 L2, GF 16 GA 6). Confidence will be high after four straight victories as well – two in this tournament and a couple in warm ups with South Korea (1-0) and Austria (0-2).
The country nicknamed The Blue and Yellows also don’t lose very often, just four times in the last two years (21 matches), and when they do occasionally slip up it is more often than not by the odd goal. So they could very well make a mockery of their underdog tag here.
You would need to stretch right back to June of 2017 for the last occasion the Swedes were beaten by a clear two goal margin, in a 2-0 loss to Netherlands. As a matter of fact they played the USA in the intervening period and were only narrowly beaten 1-0 back in 2017 – that being their only defeat in the last five meetings (W1 D3 L1). It means odds of almost evens on them avoiding a margin of defeat greater than one goal here are certainly appealing.
Sweden have the capacity, as well as the required track record, to make this an uncomfortable contest and shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. We also shouldn’t play down the ease at which they, too, have dispatched with Chile (2-0) and Thailand (5-1) in this group, because that can be lost amid all the US hyperbole.
United States
This tournament has almost been the USA show thus far, making light work of their opponents on the pitch and making headlines off it. Thailand were ruthlessly dismantled in record-breaking fashion in the opening game (13-0), which sparked a public backlash following their exuberant goal celebrations when already well assured of the victory, while they were comfortable throughout in their win over Chile (3-0).
The routine win against Chile means the United States have now won their last eight games, which is impressive enough but it was achieved with an astonishing aggregate score of 39 goals to 1. Formidable form to say the least.
This match with Sweden, though, will be their sternest examination so far, particularly for a defence that has been untroubled up until now. Head coach Jill Ellis made a number of high profile personnel changes in the last game, leaving out Megan Rapinoe and Alex Morgan, who currently leads the way in the scoring charts on 5 despite only playing the one game. Those fresh legs could be key to breaking down what has been a stubborn opponent for them in the past.
Perhaps the changes were made with Sweden in mind, because if there is one team which has been a thorn in the USWNT’s side, it is the Swedes, who have avoided defeat in four of the previous five meetings. Although the US did come out on top in the most recent, a 1-0 win in 2017.
Betting Tips
Sweden +1.5 Asian Handicap – 19/20 Bet365
Betting Conclusion
The USA, remarkably, have only tasted defeat on the one occasion in the past 40 matches (W34 D5). They’re currently on a winning run of eight games that has seen them score 39 times and concede one. It is daunting stuff, if you’re Sweden that is.
The Swedes pride themselves on being very difficult to beat though, and seldom are they rolled over. The size of the task facing them isn’t new or unfamiliar, having been competitive in all recent encounters with the USWNT. They have quietly impressed at these finals as well, and, although they are rightly underdogs here, their odds seem too large and there is plenty of scope to get them on side from a betting perspective.
Each of the last five matches between Sweden and USA featured no more than two goals, so Under 2.5 Goals appeals at 23/20. I’m not so sure though, as Sweden are in scoring form at the moment. None of those games resulted in Sweden being beaten by two clear goals though, so the safer bet is backing Sweden with a 1.5 goal headstart on the Asian Handicap.
