The Derby Betting Preview, 2015-06-06

Saturday to be a day of success for Giovanni

Horse Racing Tips

The Derby
Saturday 6 June 2015 – Start Time: 1630hrs
Horse Racing – England – Epsom Racecourse

Now the fillies have had their day in the sun, the three year-old colts take centre stage at Epsom on Saturday. Aidan O’Brien – who was responsible for training the winner of Friday’a big race – so often has the most-fancied runner in this race, but even he has to play second fiddle to John Gosden, who trains the first two in the market. Golden Horn stormed to favouritism after an impressive win in the Dante, considered to be one of the best trials for the a Derby – last month. Jack Hobbs was next best that day and will try to turn the tables on his stablemate. Following the late defection of Zawraq, Elm Park (who finished third in the Dante) is next in the marker although he is more than double the price of the second favourite. The most-fancied of O’Briens trio is Giovanni Canaletto, a horse that was pretty much ignored throughout the winter and only really came into prominence when some of the trainer’s other horses failed to fire in their preparations.

Golden Horn 7/4 @ Stan James

Despite not having being entered in this race originally, connections saw fit to supplement Golden Horn after his authoritative win in the York Race. The main question surrounding this horse is whether or not he will stay the distance of a mile and-a-half, as he is bred for shorter trips. Supporters will point to how he looked to be going away from the others in the Dante as proof he will cope with the extra two furlongs, particularly as it was against two horses who definitely will like this longer race. Other than that, Frankie Dettori’s mount does look very strong at the head of the market.

Jack Hobbs 5/1 @ Paddypower

No soon has Jack Hobbs’ romped home at Sandown in his first start of this season, he was already being put forward as a possible Derby contender. Finishing second to Golden Horn last time out has dented the optimism somewhat, but he remains a love contender and the Godolphin operation have been impressed enough to purchase a share in the horse. His new owners will hope that the extended trip will bring his stamina into play but he was well beat at York and looks to have it all to do in order to finish ahead of his stablemate.

ElmPark 8/1 @ Betfred

Andrew Balding will hope ElmPark is good enough to give him his first win in this famous race, and follow in the foot steps of his dad, Ian. Winner of the Racing Post Trophy as a two-year-old, hopes were very high that he would turn out to be every bit as good this season. Third place in the Dante was not a bad effort on his seasonal reappearance but there was some disappointment that he did not perform better and with quick ground likely come race time on Saturday, that may not see the horse at his best – seemingly preferring slower ground.

The Field

This year’s running of the Derby looks to be a little low on quality but like in the Oaks run yesterday, Epsom can throw up surprising results. Giovanni Canaletto does not have the same form that some of the stars who have ran in this race for his connections in the past, but his close second at the Curragh – allied with Ryan Moore electing to ride him – means he has grown in popularity leading up to the race. As with all O’Brien’s horses entered in the race, the trip will be perfect for him, and as the horse has run only three times in his career there should be a good deal of improvement still to come. The trainer’s other two entries, Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, are next in the betting but both will have to improve significantly if the market principals run to form. Another interesting Irish contender is a Success Days, trained by Kevin Condon and ridden by Shane Foley. Virtually unconsidered until his most recent win, he comes into this hoping for a four-timer – having already lowered the colours of John F. Kennedy, who was ante-post favourite for this race during the winter.

The Derby Betting

There is very little to oppose the favourite on, but the one doubt around him is a big one – his stamina. The pace he showed in that race was that of a horse who seems at his best over shorter distances. The fast ground will certainly help him in that respect and it is difficult to see him getting beat should he handle the course. In trying to find a horse to take him on with, I am going to look beyond the next two in the marker. Jack Hobbs was beat fair and square at York and, considering he is plenty short enough, I do not think he represents value to turn that form around. The same applies to Elm Park and as I think the ground will be against that one, I am happy to look elsewhere. Giovanni Canaletto has the services of the best jockey in the world and whilst he has it to do in the book, there is no better trainer than Aidan O’Brien at priming their horses for this race. This one has had it’s problems in the build-up but it represents good each-way value as it will come on for it’s reappearance and will relish this quick ground. My other suggested bet is Success Day, who continues to improve for racing. The horse has run three times and won three times this season, winning by a total of 15 ½ lengths. Connections had to supplement him for this race and I do not think they would have paid that money if he was without a chance. There is the suggestion he would like slower ground but I am willing to chance that at the prices.

Giovanni Canaletto each-way 9/1 @ Paddypower
Success Days 20/1 @ Stan James