The King George Vi and Queen Elizabeth Stakes 4.35 Ascot – Betting Pick Sea Moon

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Horse Racing Tips

The King George today (Saturday) is arguably one of the best races in the last decade. Can’t remember a race that has so many different angles in terms of form, ground, trip, course and of course, ability. Nathaniel, St Nicholas Abbey, Danedream, Dunaden, Reliable Man, Deep Brillante and Masked Marvel have all won a Group 1 whilst Sea Moon is rapidly improving and has two very impressive G2 successes to his name.

I’m a massive fan of Nathaniel and he was very impressive winning the Eclipse a fortnight ago. Not only was the trip shorter than ideal but it was his first run since October. He looks a stronger horse this season and his credentials are proving both at the trip and the course. The one lingering doubt I have is his quick reapperance after so long off the track. John Gosden would never run him here if he didn’t think he would do himself justice though and you could also argue that his run in the Eclipse will have got him spot on for this.

St Nicholas Abbey is the one I want to avoid in the race despite looking better than ever when winning the Coronation Cup at Epsom. He looked impressive as he strode into the race and took it up before going clear, but what did he beat?! Red Cadeaux is short of top class, if he was in this race tomorrow he would be about a 25/1 shot so that kind of put’s it into perspective. He is a good yardstick though and has faced several of these horses recently. A big concern I have about SNA is the track – I don’t think he is suited by it compared to other horses in the field. Last year’s performance was one where he never looked comfortable and was awkward on the run in. That was his only run and it might be because of the long run-in which doesn’t suit some horses. Compared to Epsom’s tight, undulating corners, Ascot is much more of a galloping track and he might not have the pace of some of these. The ground is the other thing that worries me as he’s never won when soft has been in the going since his 2yo days.

Sea Moon is the fly in the ointment for some of the horses with the form in the bag. His win at Royal Ascot was impressive and he had Dunaden back in third that day. Don’t see any reason for that to be turned around tomorrow. Sea Moon was been beaten by SNA less than a year ago in the Breeders Cup but the ground will be much different day and for the reasons explained earlier, I think there is enough to suggest that Sea Moon could reverse the form. Unlike SNA he will love the softer going, is proven on the track and looks to be coming to his peak as well. Moore is still the best in the business despite the season’s that Buick and JO’B are having and his tactical nous could be crucial.

Danedream has the single best piece of form coming into this after winning the Arc last year but hasn’t recaptured that form since. Dangerous to write off, however, and may make her odds look silly. Deep Brillante, well I’m guessing, but I imagine he would have to be really special to come all the way over from Japan as a 3yo and beat a field of this class. Not saying it won’t happen but I could never fancy it. Dunaden’s supporters may feel their were excuses in his two defeats this season. The race in France which Aiken won was tactical whilst you may say he was unlucky in the Hardwicke last time out – I don’t buy into that though. Has to regain a better standard of form to take a hand here. Reliable Man is overpriced and will love the going, probably not going to be good enough to win it but classy on it’s day and wouldn’t be surprised if he nicks a place.

I’m between Sea Moon and Nathaniel, can barely split them. Nathaniel is a tremendous battler but Sea Moon has that wee extra bit of improvement to come out yet as well I think. Both are proven over course and distance but I think Sir Michael Stoute’s horse – Sea Moon – will just edge it.

My Selection: Sea Moon 3/1 @ PaddyPower


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