The Oaks
Friday 5 June 2015 – Start Time: 1630hrs
Horse Racing – England – Epsom Racecourse
The Oaks, run at Epsom Racecourse, is the third classic of the British Flat racing season, and the second for fillies after the 1000 Guineas. Run over 12 furlongs (a mile and a half), the race is open to three-year-olds, and is one of the most prestigious races in the calendar. This year’s renewal includes the winner of the Newmarket race Legatissimo, who powered her way to success in the 1000 Guineas at the beginning of May. The David Wachman trained filly heads the market for the big race, but there is plenty of contenders looking to usurp the favourite and prevent her from clinching back-to-back classics. Amongst them is Sir Michael Stoute’s Crystal Zvedza, who turned in what was a very impressive visual display last time out. Next in the list is Jessica Harrington’s Jack Naylor, who finished fourth last time out in the Irish 2000 Guineas. These three are the most fancied of a field of 11, but when you add in a couple of live chances trained by Aidan O’Brien, and a further two by John Gosden, it looks like a very intriguing running.
The ground is likely to be on the fast side of good, and as Epsom – despite being a tricky course to handle due to the undulating nature of it – is not the stiffest. That should give some of the more doubtful stayers an opportunity to get the trip.
Legatissimo 3/1 @ Ladbrokes
Legatissimo has done absolutely nothing wrong in the first two races of her three-year-old campaign, winning impressively on her seasonal debut before giving her trainer his first British classi. She is deserving of massive respect and will likely relish the step up to 12 furlongs for the first time. If she is victorious it would mean jockey Ryan Moore will hold all three of the first classics races thus far.
Crystal Zvedza 4/1 @ William Hill
Although the Sir Michael Stoute trainer horse cannot claim anything like Group 1 winning form, but there is no getting away from how good her performance look on the eye when taking a Listed contest at Newbury in the middle of last month. The way in which the horse made up ground when asked to by the jockey, to go on and win by more than three lengths, was scintillating. She will have to improve again, but as it will be only the third race of her career, it is certainly not beyond her to do that.
Jack Naylor 7/1 @ Betfair
One of the more exposed fillies in the race is another of the Irish contingent, of which there are five – Jack Naylor. Having raced seven times already (only the outsider Qualify has raced more), many would feel she is vulnerable to some of the more lightly-raced contenders. That may be the case, but the fourth place finish last time at the Curragh was a performance full of potential when stepping up in distance, which she will do on Friday. The quicker ground is also likely to eek out some further improvement.
Best of the rest
Aside from Qualify and Bellajeu, there is a case to be made for virtually all of the horses contesting this year’s Oaks. The Gosden pair – Jazzi Top and Star of Seville – have both win on their first two appearances this season, with the latter taking the Musidora by a head from O’Brien’s Together Forever. There was very little between them that day and it would not be the biggest surprise if the Irish challenger turned the tables. Another of the trial winners is Diamondandrubies, who won the Chester Vase. Another of the O’Brien horses, her performance in the Vase was one of authority but for a horse trained by a man who has enjoyed so much classic success throughout his career, it is somewhat disconcerting that she remains a double figure price.
One of the more interesting horses at a price is Lady of Dubai, trained in England by Luca Cumani. Despite only winning her maiden at the third attempt, the performance of this 11/1 shot last time out in a listed race at Goodwood was strikingly good. Cumani is not one for aiming his horses at big targets if he doesn’t think they could be competitive and this horse has a very similar profile to Volume, who finished third in last year’s race.
The Oaks Betting Tips
It is hard to poke holes in Legatissimo’s form, as this year’s Guineas looked to be a decent renewal. Her pedigree suggests this trip will also see her in a better light and with the ground to prove no barrier, it is hard to see her being out of the frame. She certainly will not be lacking from the man sitting aboard her, either. Crystal Zvedza is a completely different in that you are taking a lot of potential rather than what she has achieved. Being trained by Sir Michael Stoute is another plus as he has all there is to win in this game, including two running of this race. With the Champions Jockey, Richard Hughes, doing the steering, she too can be backed with confidence in the hope she improves once again. I’m happy to leave both of these alone, however, as I think they represent little value in the current market.
Instead, my first selection is the Jessica Harrington trained Jack Naylor. Despite stamina probably not being as important as it would be if the conditions were softer, I fully expect the pace this race will be run to test some of the more doubtful stayers. Despite Jack Naylor not racing beyond a mile as yet, there is plenty to take from her fast-finishing fourth in the Irish Guineas. There is an argument to made made that it was every bit as strong as that of the English version and having already defeated Legatissimo in their juvenile days, I think she is value at more than double the price.
The second and final selection is Lady of Dubai who looks a sporting each-way bet at the odds. Although it was only a list race she won last time out, it was also her first appearance of the season so there should be stacks of improvement to come from that. She comfortably saw off a couple of decent horses and there should have no problems seeing out the trip, either. She may well find one or two of these too good at the top of the market but at the price she is certainly worth a play and with a bit of luck, she could well give her trainer his first ever win in this race.
Jack Naylor to win 7/1 @ Betfair
Lady of Dubai e/w 11/1 @ Bet365
