AJ Auxerre V Real Madrid
Tuesday, 28th September – 19:45 GMT
UEFA Champions League: Group G
Auxerre
Ligue 1 Position: 17th
Ligue 1 Home Form: DDDD (0-4-0)
Goals Conceded in First Half at Home: 1/6
Goals Scored in First Half at Home: 4/6
Real Madrid
La Liga Position: 4th
La Liga Away Form: DWD (1-2-0)
Goals Conceded in First Half Away: 0/1
Goals Scored in First Half Away: 0/2
Life at the Bernabeu hasn’t exactly gone to script so far if your name is one Jose Mourinho, however at least his record in Europe is second to none, even with the Galacticos. Real Madrid rather cruised to their first European victory of the campaign at home to Ajax two weeks ago, and while the scoreline may have indicated a close run thing, Madrid battered their Dutch visitors in a game which had the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo and Gonzalo Higuain converted the many chances they had handed on a plate, the scoreline may well of been a cricket score.
Back in Spain, though, Mourinho’s Madrid career hasn’t gone swimmingly, despite the team sat in a prominent position in the table of fourth. Even with so many forward stars on their books; Ronaldo Higuain, Di Maria, Ozil, Benzema… the list really does go on, Real have struggled to find the back of the net, doing so just six times so far in five games. It’s not the worst statistic in the world but it soon becomes tainted when you hear of two away stalemates where Madrid failed to find the back of their opponents net, the latest coming at the weekend away to the team many in Spain claim are the worst in La Liga, Levante.
Confidence isn’t great, even Mourinho is beginning to get tough with his misfiring forwards with some subtle hints of criticism in the press. The one thing I will say, Real Madrid are a team waiting to be unleashed and sooner or later, when the team finally does click and all the bits of the puzzle fall into place, someone is going to be on the wrong end of a Galacticos hiding.
Auxerre were the surprise package in France last term, finishing third in the end but they were right up there challenging for the most part. This season, though, hasn’t had the same ebb and flow from Jean Fernandez’s side and as a result can be found languishing in the lower reaches of Ligue 1’s table, all the way down in 17th.
The earlier problem for Auxerre has been their inability to convert decent and tidy for the most part home performances into victories, while they’ve struggled immensely on the road so far, although the latter should lead to them focusing more on their home encounters, the games they have more chance of winning and every chance of winning.
The Ligue 1 season is already seven games in and four of those games have been played on home soil for Auxerre, who have failed to win a single one. Try all they might, that elusive first win of the season just will not come. Their league woes have been compounded in their two most recent home fixtures, drawing 1-1 with Caen thanks to an 89th minute equaliser from the visitors while a similar occurrence occurred at the weekend. Auxerre stormed into a 2-0 lead within 11 minutes against AS Nancy and appeared to have the game and the points sewn up. My how they were mistaken, as by half-time Nancy had drawn level at 2-2, where the scoreline remained until the final whistle. In between either of these disappointing home ventures was a 1-0 defeat away in Lille, with yet another late goal, another 89th minute strike, spurring any chance of Auxerre collecting some points which may aid them in their so faltering bid to regain some confidence and lost self belief.
The point we’re trying to highlight is that neither the hosts, Auxerre, nor their celebrity visitors, Real Madrid, are performing to a high standard right now, with confidence levels not at their highest and various aspects of their game spiralling against them.
Another interesting point we would like to make is how often the first half passes by for these two teams without a great deal worth mentioning. You could argue that Auxerre score most of their goals in the first half of their home encounters, which would be true, but then counter that with Madrid’s two away clean sheets in La Liga as well as conceding their only away goal so far in the second period.
And in the other corner we have Real Madrid, whom should be scoring goals for fun but are somehow struggling to put their chances away. In fact, they’ve only scored one of their six league goals in the first period, a Ronaldo penalty at the Bernabeu, but away from home is far more dismal affair, with Madrid having drawn blanks at Real Mallorca and Levante whilst scraping past Real Sociedad 2-1 in between, although neither of their goals against the latter came in the second half.
It has often been said that studying statistics all your life, analysing the patterns of the past, can land you in hot water sometimes. However, at the same time I would rather be made aware of Madrid’s slow starting tendencies and Auxerre’s sluggish start to the season than not, and with Madrid expected to do most of the question asking but failing to get many answers so far in their first 45 minutes of games, and Auxerre rarely conceding in the first period and unlikely to ask too much of Iker Casillas in the Madrid goal, I think a couple of bets stand out like a sore thumb.
Matt’s Selections:
Half Time Outcome (DRAW) – 2.25 Coral
0-0 Half-Time Correct Score – 2.88 WilliamHill
Under 2.5 Goals – 1.83 Bet365
Draw/Real Madrid (HT/FT Betting) – 4.50 Ladbrokes
The one thing I will say is err on the side of caution, and by that I mean don’t go and over do it with the size of your stake, as like I said earlier; Real Madrid are a team waiting to be unleashed and sooner or later, when the team finally does click and all the bits of the puzzle fall into place, someone is going to be on the wrong end of a Galacticos hiding.
