Leg 1: Liverpool
Leg 2: Atletico Madrid
Leg 3: Zenit St Petersburg
Leg 4: Sampdoria -1 Handicap (Not Asian)
Bet Type: Accumulator
Odds: 7/1 BetFred
FC Utrecht are unbeaten at home this season, even dumping Celtic out of the competition in the play-off’s by overturning a 2-0 away deficit to rout the SPL side 4-0 at the Galgenwaard Stadion. However, Liverpool (2.20 Coral) are several grades up from Celtic, despite their lacklustre start to the season back home in England. The hosts, who will know the importance of winning their home fixtures in a tricky little group, should look to play on the front foot on Thursday evening, not shy to commit men forward and should this be the case then Liverpool could counter to deadly effect, as they’ve been trying to do under Hodgson so far but failed miserably against noteworthy opposition. So long as Roy names Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres in his starting eleven, Liverpool odds are more than worth their value. Without them, though, and it’s a different outcome altogether.
The holders of the UEFA Europa League, Atletico Madrid (2.00 StanJames), were humbled on their first game of the defence of their crown away in Greece. Quique Flores’ men will be eager to make amends for their early slip up and should be all too well aware by now that in European competition, whenever a group is concerned, a poor start often leads to early exit. In a home fixture with German side Bayer Leverkusen, who won emphatically at the weekend but are missing a number of key players, Michael Ballack and forward duo Kiessling and Patrick Helmes included; the latter scoring a hat-trick on Match Day 1. Bayer still managed to score four away at Stuttgart in the league last weekend but will find an Atletico side more resilient in Madrid, where Atleti have beaten Real Zaragoza and Sporting Gijon without conceding this season, although they were overhauled by Barcelona in a 2-1 defeat. Even so, I fancy them to bounce back.
Zenit St Petersburg (1.33 Boylesports) are closing in on the Russian championship and, because of this, are in buoyant mood ahead of their Europa League clash with Greek opponents AEK Athens, who are in contrasting form having lost both their away league encounters to date and find themselves closer to bottom than top in the Greek league table (Top Division). Zenit produced something pretty special a fortnight ago, when beating Belgian champs Anderlecht 3-1 in Belgium, and back at home they’ll be even more confident of handing out another punishing scoreline to an opponent which clearly doesn’t thrive off the travelling aspect of football.
Sampdoria (1.67 PaddyPower) are a frustrating team to follow in Serie A, as one minute they can be world-beaters while the next pure and utter trash. Since winning 2-0 on the opening day of the season at home to Lazio, the Genoa based side have struggled and have now gone four games without winning domestically. However, in Europe they faired OK, holding PSV Eindhoven to a draw in Holland two weeks ago and will now be looking to make further inroads in the competition by registering all three points in another group fixture which, to be brutally honest, they have to be winning if they’re to remain in contention for the latter stages, as their record away from home doesn’t really stand up.
Value Acca: Dynamo Kiev, PAOK, Manchester City & Steaua Bucharest – 20/1 WilliamHill
The Ukrainian is on the up in terms of establishing recognised European names, with Dynamo Kiev (2.20 WilliamHill) the strongest in my eyes despite Shakhtar being the ones currently competing in the UEFA Champions League. Kiev also have a number of decent players and recognisable faces, with Andriy Yarmenko and Artem Milevsky one of a number of Ukrainian internationals in their midst, as is Andriy Shevchenko, while there’s also an interesting mixture of Brazilians in their squad, who always seem to excel when playing for Ukrainian teams. Moreover, their opponents, FC Sheriff, haven’t won a European fixture in six games while no team from Moldova has ever beaten a Ukrainian opponent.
PAOK (2.00 PaddyPower) are Greece’s equivalent to Stoke City in that rarely do they ship a tonne of goals, any in fact. They’ve started this season in disappointing fashion, having won just one of their opening four league games although still unbeaten at home, but last season they conceded a meagre 16 goals en route to a third-place finish, with only six of those being shipped at home. Their opponents are Croatian powerhouses Dinamo Zagreb, who stunned everyone with victory on Match Day 1 over Villarreal, who were down to ten men for the most part, but will struggle to find the same sort of consistency and rhythm on their travels in Greece.
Juventus can never be trusted, their 3-3 draw on Match Day 1 at home to Polish side Lech confirmed this. They ever won 4-2 at the weekend meaning another typical defeat should be around the corner. Man City (1.80 Ladbrokes), though, are in high spirits after halting Chelsea’s rampant form in the Premier League at the weekend. With Carlos Tevez, who is in scoring form, likely to lead the line in front of a midfield boasting both creative options and stability, it’s difficult to envisage anything other than a home win for Europe’s wannabe giants.
And Steaua Bucharest (3.00 SkyBet), arguably my most controversial pick, but the Romanian outfit didn’t look half bad a fortnight ago at Anfield, albeit against virtually a second string outfit. Even so, they looked nifty in attack and have a player in Bogdan Stancu who can and will score goals for them. Their form domestically is pretty poor but their best material tends to come at home, unbeaten in their own backyard so far this season, whereas their opponents, Napoli, are often hit and miss. The Italians did win 4-1 away from home at the weekend against newly promoted Cesena, but they slipped up two weeks ago when only managing a 1-1 draw at home to Utrecht and could be made to pay the price out in Romania.
