West Brom v Aston Villa – Pick: Over 2.5 – 30 April 2011

Premier League Tips

 

WEST BROM v ASTON VILLA
Premier League
Saturday 30th April 2011 – Kickoff 3pm
Two former Liverpool managers go head-to-head today when West Brom take on midlands rivals Aston Villa in the first of two midlands derbies this weekend which involves all four teams in the bottom half of the league as the relegation battle hots up.
Both West Brom & Aston Villa have obtained the benchmark 40 points or more (Villa with 41) that is usually regarded as being the safe haven from relegation. However, this season there are a number of teams mathematically involved in the drop-zone, so both teams will be keen to make it absolutely certain – plus it’s a local derby which adds that extra spice to proceedings.
West Brom had put a six match unbeaten run together at home prior to Chelsea’s visit last weekend which promptly put paid to The Baggies extending that run – they lost 1-3.
However that run included vital wins over Blackpool 3-2 and Liverpool 2-1 along with draws against Wigan, West Ham, Wolves and Arsenal which has seen them pull away from immediate danger. Their home record of 6-6-5 27/29 looks a lot more respectable now and also in their favour is their ability to score goals at this level which had previously been a major thorn in their side.
Striker Peter Odemwingie (13 goals, 6 assists) has been a revelation and perhaps one of the best signings of the season, along with the ever consistent Chris Brunt (4 goals, 9 assists), midfielder James Morrison (4 goals, 3 assists) and Jerome Thomas (3 goals, 5 assists), there’s plenty about West Brom this time around to cause problems with visiting Aston Villa on Saturday.
Aston Villa travel to The Hawthorns knowing they could be in danger of being leapfrogged by their opponents today if they don’t improve their current away form; however, they did beat West Ham 2-1 on their last away day which will provide a timely boost ahead of this derby clash.
Villa’s away form though has generally been very poor, standing at 3-5-9 19/37, but what is interesting is that they don’t tend to struggle to find the net on their travels and have been involved in 12 results of over 2.5 goals in their 17 away matches so far.
Goals are likely to come from the following sources; Darren Bent, Ashley Young, Stewart Downing or emerging midfielder Marc Albrighton as they look to secure Premiership safety amidst a boisterous home crowd at West Brom.
Head-to-head: The last three meetings between these two sides have ended 2-1.
The Verdict: West Brom will attack when at home, while Villa will look to counter at any opportunity with two quick wingers in Downing and Young, and despite it being a local derby, I’m confident that there’ll be goals in this fixture. Villa might just edge it 2-1 perhaps.
Main Pick: Over 2.5 @ 1.88 with Pinnacle looks a value bet