2011 Grand National Bettings Odds, Tips and Preview

Horse Racing Betting

The 2011 Grand National hits the starting line on Saturday, April 9th at 4.15pm, and the prestigious Steeplechase will once again draw plenty of attraction from both hardened and causal punters. It is easy to forget sometimes that the Grand National is part of a great three day festival at Aintree, and after the thrills and spills of the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year, top level horse racing is rampant at the moment, with the Dubai World Cup and the Derby Day in the US part of a busy month or so. The Merseyside marathon is such a huge draw, from the avid punter who has sat down and studied form for the last three months, to those fancying a dabble in the office sweepstakes. First of all, some important news, is that Synchronised, who won the Welsh National, has been withdrawn, along with Midnight Chase. That is to add to the likes of Ballytrim, Notre Pere and Nedzer’s Return to name a few other absentees. But no point focusing on who is not going to win the big race because they aren’t even at the starting line, instead we can take a long hard look at outright favourite The Midnight Club. The entrant, trained by Willie Mullins ran in a victory at the Grade 2 Bobbyjo Chase back in February, and now The Midnight Club has taken over the reins as market leader for the steeplechase, thanks to the news that Ruby Walsh would be in the saddle.

The extra takings coming across the board on The Midnight Club, has put a bit of clear daylight between the chaser and co joint ante post betting favourite What A Friend. While both were hovering around 10/1 for some time, the move for the Ruby Walsh mount now means that What A Friend is back at around 12/1 with Blue Square at the moment. Still, that is a pretty good price to take, and plenty of value there for one of the main front runners for the Grand National. This is Sir Alex Ferguson’s horse, if that is going to influence your betting on the Grand National in any way shape or form. What A Friend is trained by Paul Nicholls and will be ridden by the promising Daryl Jacob, who put in some performances in the saddle at Cheltenham recently, when he ran What A Friend home fourth in the Gold Cup, and landed a winner in the Triumph Hurdle on the back of Zarkandar. There has been quite a bit of trading interest on What A Friend, but not quite as convinced about the duo at the Grand National, although he has a reputation as being a safe jumper. One stat working against Fergie’s horse is that only one eight year old in the last seventeen renewals has managed a win.

A better looking wager will go on Backstage, who could give trainer Gordon Elliott his second Grand National Winner after his success with Silver Birch in 2007. A young trainer, Elliott seems to have a knack of getting the best out of horses which other stables have given up on, such as the case with Silver Birch, who Paul Nicholls had previously let go. Backstage is certainly a much improved horse, but you will need to watch the going with Backstage, as if it continues to be too soft following rain, he may not have legs to get home first. Didn’t go very well in his last outing in conditions which didn’t suit him at all. A little unorthodox, but would make for a fantastic follow up for Elliott after Silver Birch. Was going well last year in the race until he hit a spot of bother at the 20th, but it was all good experience. French horses generally don’t have the long run stamina, because there is no need to prime horses for major runs in their home country, where races max out around the 3 mile mark. Still, that aside, worth a punt at 12/1 at Bet365.

Oscar Time looks to be a very interesting betting option at the 2011 Grand National, simply because of amateur Sam Whaley Cohen in the saddle. Oscar Time ran home behind Blueseacracker at the Irish Grand National, giving his backers good confidence ahead of the ride at Aintree. Waley-Cohen was of course on the back of Long Run when the youngster starred in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month, and the Irish trained horse could really make a decent showing here. Oscar Time (14/1 at BetFair) has a little ground to make up after being beaten by The Midnight Club at Fairyhouse’s Bobbyjo Chase, and Oscar Time does not look to fussy about the ground he goes on, so look for a fast start from him and then to carry. We can’t look at the 2011 Grand National without looking for AP McCoy. After fourteen failed attempts, the Champion Jockey finally nailed a big win the National last year when he led Don’t Push It to the tape first. However, with Don’t Push It hovering around 16/1 at SportingBet, he is back in the ante post betting because of the top weight he is carrying. AP McCoy’s ride has been assigned 11st 5lb, a whole five pounds heavier than he was in last year’s race. This will probably work against Don’t Push It in the long run, as no horse has won the National for over thirty years carrying more than 11st 5lb. In the big picture, it looks as if overcoming that top weight will probably keep him out of the winners circle. The bookies will be happy about that, after McCoy’s surprise winner last year cost bookmakers around £20 million in last year’s race.

One other name of note who could make an impact is Niche Market, who has been drifting around the odds. Generally he has drifted out, which could be a good thing if you back him in an ante post betting at the moment, because he has been a market leader over the past year for the race. Currently trading at 18/1 with Victor Chandler, Niche Market, who has been assigned 10st 13lb, makes a great Grand National outside betting tip here, and well worth a shot at an each way bet. After Ruby Walsh passed up the opportunity, Harry Skelton will skip into the saddle for the ride. Really fancy a good run from Niche Market and good value on him makes for a decent pull.

Here is the break down of some of the front runners who we are focusing on here, along with some important stats and trends that you may want to look out for.

Don’t Push It
, Age 10, 11st 10lb, Ireland
What a Friend, Age 8, 11st 6lb
Niche Market, Age 10, 10st 13lb, Ireland
The Midnight Club, Age 10, 10st 12lb, Ireland
Backstage, Age 9, 10st 12lb, France
Oscar Time, Age 10, 10st 9lb, Ireland

  • It has been forty years since a who had had not previously won over 3 miles to win The Grand National
  • Experience in bigger fields has led to 17 of the last 19 National winners being previous winners in fields of a dozen competitors or more
  • Avoid younger horses. 8 year olds are about the minimum threshold here, any younger than that, you can literally rule them out.
  • 13 of the last 21 Grand National winners have been aged 10 or older
  • French horses (Mon Mome in 2009 aside) generally lack stamina and distance experience for this epic. France has produced just one winner in over a hundred years.
  • Look for a runner who definitely has won over 3 miles before over the jumps in their career.
  • Look for Grand National experience, as seven of the last ten winners had already had a run at the famous fences before.
  • Look for career experience as well, each and everyone of the last ten winners had notched up at least ten runs over the jumps before winning the National.

Selected 2011 Grand National Outright Betting Odds

The Midnight Club: 9/1 at 888Sport
Backstage: 12/1 at Bet365
What A Friend: 12/1 at Blue Square
Oscar Time: 14/1 at BetFair
Silver By Nature: 16/1 at Totesport
Ballabriggs: 16/1 at Stan James
Don’t Push It: 16/1 at SportingBet
Big Fella Thanks: 16/1 at Victor Chandler
Niche Market: 18/1 at William Hill

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