There is surprisingly good value on Long Run at the moment for the 2012 BetFair Chase to be taken at online betting site Bet365.
Despite all of his credentials, including his famous victory in the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup, punters have seemingly been a bit hesitant to get behind the Nicky Henderson trained charge. So much so that betting exchange BetFair said that they have taken a big influx of customers who have been deciding to lay Long Run. The slightly strange thing about Long Run odds for the 2012 BetFair Chase is that following the news that Imperial Commander’s injury was going to keep him out of the race, the odds drifted a bit on Long Run. With everything going on in the build up to the big race, the thing which is screaming the loudest is value. Value on Long Run.
Long Run is now trading at 11/8 with online bookmaker Bet365 and is clearly the best horse in the field. There were rumours of Long Run having a small issue, but with all positive news coming out of the stables ahead of the seasonal debut at Haydock Park on Saturday, it hasn’t stopped punters deciding not to back him heavily. He certainly not as heavily as expected. Even the conditions, which look more than likely to remain soft will be in the favour of Henderson’s chaser. By a good 10lbs Long Run is the best chaser in the field, and all the hesitance means that it is a good chance to get some value on him. But will he deliver? After being in the headlines for the right reasons for so long, he had a disappointing season last term.
The last time we saw Long Run was his third placed finish at the Cheltenham Gold Cup this year behind Synchronised. With no apparent problems, Long Run’s stand at 11/8 puts him favourite in the market ahead of 9/4 shot Silviniaco Conti, but why not stronger?
It is the presence of the Charlie Hall Chase winner Silviniaco Conti that is keep Long Run at a healthy price.
Money continues to pour in for Paul Nicholls’ rising star, who has come in from 5/2 to really challenge the established Nicky Henderson chaser in the betting. Conti was immense in his Charlie Hall victory and it is to the workmanlike horse than punters are steering. Conti’s progress has been likened to the development of Kauto Star, with plenty more promise to be fulfilled by all accounts.
With odds already having been trimmed. Silviniaco Conti will probably come in more by the star of the race. A head trader for Bet365 said “Silviniaco Conti was 3-1 when we opened our book, and he has been backed to the exclusion of everything else, down to 5-2. I think the punters have seen n by his name, and realised that he could have gone to Ascot for any number of good rides, yet is going all the way north for Silviniaco Conti.” So that is the explanation for the prices and the fact is that Long Run may be a bit vulnerable and not at his best as he heads into the first race of the season.
Will the Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh combine again to hit the bookmakers in the pocket? The duo are a massive liability for bookies and Silviniaco Conti could do some serious damage. Other contenders in the pack are The Giant Bolster in at 6/1 at the moment, followed by Weird Al, who may spring a surprise. But it looks as if it will come down to a two horse race realistically, and the Long Run camp will probably be feeling the pressure of favouritism in this one. But the positive quote of 11/8 still isn’t bad for such a strong competitor. Will he be strong enough to hold on against the rising form and power of Silviniaco Conti on Saturday?
2012 BetFair Chase Horse Racing Betting Odds at online bookmaker Bet365
Long Run 11/8, Silviniaco Conti 9/4, The Giant Bolster 6/1, Weird Al 7/1, Tidal Bay 10/1, Cannington Brook 33/1, Wayward Prince 25/1, Midnight Chase 33/1
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