2018/19 Premier League Relegation Odds & Probability Update

Implied probability of current relegation odds

Crystal Palace

Recently we had a look at the Premier League standings after eight games and saw how much the odds on each of the Big Six winning the league had shifted from the start of the season. Looking at the implied probability of the current odds, painted a clear picture there that Man City are still the heavy favourites to come away with the title.

But what about at the other end of the table?

Things start to look a bit clearer around the start of October when teams are settling into the seasons and indications of form and potential are much clearer than the unknowns at the start of the term. So who, according to the implied probability of the odds, are most likely to get relegated?

Premier League Relegation Odds*

Cardiff 2/9
Huddersfield 2/7
Burnley 2/1
Newcastle 9/4
Fulham 9/4
Southampton 7/2
Brighton 5/1
Crystal Palace 6/1
West Ham 8/1
Watford 16/1
Bar 50/1
* (betting odds taken from Bet365 on October 10th, 2018 at 4:43 pm)

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Cardiff 2/9
Implied Probability 81.8%

The Bluebirds look pretty doomed with over an 80% chance of taking the drop this season. It has been a massive struggle for the Welsh club. Despite taking a much more positive approach to life in the top flight this season, the board putting money into new signings over the summer, the outcome looks as if it is going to be pretty much the same as the last time they made it up to the top flight.

They are likely to go straight back down. Eight games into the season the Bluebirds don’t have a win on the board and went into the international break on a five-match losing streak. It’s so hard to see how their fortunes are going to change and where the goals are going to come from to save them. They have scored four in eight.

Coming back after the international break they have three big home games against Fulham, Leicester and Brighton. If they struggle for points out of that, there’s little chance of them turning it around. Neil Warnock is 7/1 odds to be the Next Manager To Leave Post* (betting odds taken on October 10th, 2018 at 4:43 pm). We like those odds.

Prediction: The Bluebirds are probably going straight back down. The spirit and fight is there but clearly, the quality isn’t.

Huddersfield 2/7
Implied Probability 77.8%

Last season David Wagner’s men did so well to fight their way to survival. They have put just four goals on the board after eight winless games and just the three points. They haven’t been able to scrap their way to much on home soil either and that is a huge problem for them. Their home form propped them up last term.

At this stage of last season, they were six points better off than they are currently. They have looked a long way short of quality this go around.

They meet Liverpool coming straight back from the intentional break but then have a run of games through to early December which look easier including Fulham, West Ham and Brighton at home. That could be a defining point of their season. They have to pick up points.

Prediction: It is easy enough to see the Terriers taking a tumble down to the Championship. They showed great fighting spirit at the end of last season, there may too much to do by then for them to get safe.

Burnley 2/1
Implied Probability 33.3%

The Clarets had a surprisingly rough start to the season with one point in five games. But they settled things down and turned it around just before the international break, taking a W2 D1 record from three games. Their defence is nowhere near as solid as it was last season but they should still be able to scrape out enough to get themselves safe. When they come back from the international break, they face Man City and Chelsea in back to back tough games. They get an easier spell of things after that.

Prediction: The Clarets are 2/5 to stay up and we are going to be all about that* (betting odds taken on October 10th, 2018 at 4:43 pm). Of the early strugglers in the Premier League, they look to have more about them than the likes of Cardiff and Huddersfield certainly.

Newcastle 9/4
Implied Probability 30.8%

There have been so many near misses for Newcastle this season that if Magpies fans were not so busy protesting Mike Ashley, they would probably be laughing. They have lost games against Tottenham, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal and Manchester United all by one goal margin. They had a bit of a cruel opening run of fixtures having to meet five of the league’s big six in eight games. That has left them with just the two points on the board.

But their performances against the big clubs haven’t been terrible. The fixture list gets easier for them without question right through to Christmas so that is going to be such an important time for Rafa Benitez to steel his troops and get returns.

Predictions: Ahead of the season we tipped the Magpies as having relegation potential. If they can’t turn the corner from now through to Christmas, they are going to be in an even bigger hole. But we see them just scraping through to survive and they are 4/11 to avoid the drop currently* (betting odds taken on October 10th, 2018 at 4:43 pm).

Fulham 9/4
Implied Probability 30.8%

We actually expected a little bit more out of Fulham this season. They were so good in the Championship last season, but Slavisa Jokanovic’s men have not been able to put things together. They play some slick football but over the opening eight games of the season, they were all over the place defensively. They went into the international break with the worst defensive record in the top flight, shipping 21 goals in eight games. There’s a clear problem which needs fixing.

Prediction: We think that the Cottagers can actually stay up. That is because they do have good quality in their ranks and have way more depth to compete than some of those other strugglers around them. They will likely do enough on home soil.

Southampton 7/2
Implied Probability 22.2%

It has been another season of disappointments from the Saints who only just finished above the drop zone last season. They have looked terribly lightweight at times this season and collected just one win in eight. The Saints lost their last three before the international break. We put all this down to boss Mark Hughes who is worth a look at 10/1 to be the next Premier League manager out of a job* (betting odds taken on October 10th, 2018 at 4:43 pm).

Prediction: We think that the Saints won’t wait too much longer with Hughes, give him the push and get a fresh face in who can shake up and get much more out of this squad than the current boss is doing. They should survive.

Brighton 5/1
Implied Probability 16.7%

Brighton are just one of a fairly large clutch of teams this season who look as if they could have their struggles. Just before the international break though they got their second win of the season to lift them well clear of the drop zone. They have shown, to their credit, that they are at least capable of scrapping out some points with wins over Man Utd and West Ham and have avoided feat against the likes of Fulham and Southampton beneath them.

Prediction: Brighton have qualities that are likely to get them safe. They have produced a decent output in front of goal surprisingly. They should stay up.

Crystal Palace 6/1
Implied Probability 14.3%

Looking at Palace this is one of those situations where you eye up to probability and start to question it. The Eagles have basically one ace up their sleeve that is Wilfried Zaha. When he’s not playing well or injured, their flaws show up. They actually look as if they have taken a bit of a step backwards this season which is worrying. That’s based on their W2 D1 L5 record from their first eight games. There’s just a lack of goals and Roy Hodgson could have a tough second-season syndrome ahead.

On their return from their international break they face Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham and then Manchester United in a tremendously tough run of games. So come the start of December they could easily be in a really rough spot.

Prediction: We think that the chance of the Eagles staying up in the top flight are a bit overrated. They have been poor this season and if Zaha can’t drag them out of their rut then there is no one else there who can help them. Surely at 6/1 odds in Premier League relegation* (betting odds taken on October 10th, 2018 at 4:43 pm) they are worth an each way regelation flutter.


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