The public will be heading to the polls on December 12th. It is a late election in the year. It follows a failure by the Government to come to any deal on Brexit. It has been a massively tumultuous year in politics. It is not done and dusted yet. The parties are still out and about trying to muster up some late support.
The country will decide very soon. Here are the latest 2019 General Election betting updates.
Conservatives still dominate the markets
An election win for the Conservatives is expected to happen. All the projections seem to be agreed on that. The Conservatives to win the most seats at the 2019 Election is at 1/20 odds-on with BetVictor* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). So the election outcome doesn’t look as if it is going to be a surprise. It may not even be that close. Labour are only 14/1 to win this market* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). There is no other party in sight.
Will the Tories get the majority?
The Conservatives will have to get to the magic number of 326 to form a government. That’s how many seats they have to reach. A high percentage of the projections are expecting them to get there. Back in 2017, they didn’t get a majority. They had to team up with the DUP for an extra 10 seats. In doing they formed a coalition government after coming up short on winning their own seats.
This time the Conservatives are 4/9 at William Hill to earn a majority* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). A Labour Majority is a distant 20/1 shot* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). But the 2019 General Election markets were very interesting this week.
Punters were leaning away from a Conservative majority. It was more towards the backing of a No Overall Majority option at 23/10 with Betfair* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). That’s where the majority of the betting went on Monday in the Majority market.
Majority or Minority?
Given the look of the projections, it may well be that the Conservatives can land enough seats to get themselves a government. So the Conservative Majority government after the election is at 4/9 odds-on price with Betfred to happen* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm).
In the Government after the General Election market, however, a Labor Minority at 13/2 with BetVictor was gaining support early this week* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). That’s where the Tories don’t get a majority, can’t get a coalition going and then hand it over to the next largest party to see if they can form a government. A Labour – SNP coalition was the next option at 14/1 as the most likely resolution.
Can the Brexit Party win a seat?
The bookmakers don’t think so. Nigel Farage’s party re heavy odds on at 2/9 with Betfred to finish with under 0.5 seats (so none) at this election* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). Key resignations aren’t going to help their chances of picking up seats at the 2019 General Election. There is a reason why they are not expected to win seats.
It is because of an agreement that Farage produced for PM Boris Johnson in November. Farage said that the Brexit Party wouldn’t stand in 317 seats. Those are the 317 seats that the Conservatives won at the last election. That makes life a lot easier for the Tories. So it leaves only 275 seats that the Brexit Party can have a go at.
A good turnout at the polls?
Yes, it is an awkward time of the year to be pulling together an election. But will all of the back and forth over Brexit this year, all the turmoil and headline-grabbing moments, mean a high turn out at the polls? Public interest surely has to be high. Some will be turning towards the options to get Brexit successfully done. Then there will be those who will hope to seize the chances to stop it in its tracks.
It’s a big one.
The favourite option in the Turn Out market for the 2019 General Election is 65-70% at 13/8 with Paddy Power* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm). Following behind at 3/1 is 60-65% and 70-75% at 7/2. The more extremes in the market are at under 60% at 10/1 with Unibet and Over 75% at 12/1 with Ladbrokes* (betting odds taken from December 10th, 2019 at 9:07 pm).
The market shift is interesting
Monday was a really interesting day of action in the 2019 General Election betting. The Conservatives have long been dominating the markets, but is a late shift of public mindset happening? The fact that the late action is going towards the No Overall Majority and the Labour Minority makes this very interesting ahead of Thursday.
