2019 US Masters Predictions and Winner Odds

Another first time winner coming at Augusta?

Augusta National. It is one of the most iconic golf courses in the world and the beast in the world will be descending on the Georgia track for this year’s US Masters. This is the first of the four Majors in the calendar year host at the Augusta National Golf Club. It is also the one that has the smallest field taking part as well.

US Masters 2019 Winner Odds*

Rory McIlroy 13/2
Dustin Johnson 10/1
Tiger Woods 14/1
Justin Rose 14/1
Jon Rahm 18/1
Justin Thomas 18/1
Rickie Fowler 18/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Francesco Molinari 22/1
Paul Casey 25/1
Brooks Koepka 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
Bryson DeChambeau 25/1
Jason Day 30/1
Bubba Watson 33/1
Hideki Matsuyama 35/1
Bar 40/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm)

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Last Five Winners

2014 Bubba Watson
2015 Jordan Spieth
2016 Danny Willett
2017 Sergio Garcia
2018 Patrick Reed

Defending Champion

Patrick Reed is the reigning champion and he is at 45/1 odds to make it back to back wins at Augusta* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm). He finished -15 to get the title, holding out against Rickie Fowler. That was the third-best score in the history of the tournament. Reed doesn’t take great form into the tournament having missed the cut at the Valspar are recently. He hasn’t been in the top ten this year. Also there have only been three men who have successfully defended a Masters title in the history of the event.

2019 Outright Favorite

It is Rory McIlroy who heads to Augusta as the 13/2 favourite* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm). He is still on the hunt for his first ever title at the event. He has had a great track record of consistency though in the last five editions. Each of those five outings have produced a top-ten finish at the US Masters. He was T5 last year, almost matching his best effort of his fourth-place finish in 2015.

McIlroy has been in some pretty strong form as well this year so he could be trending to something. He took THE PLAYERS recently in mid-March and all six starts that he has played Stateside this season have produced a top-six finish. Can he add that one missing Major to his cabinet? Is this the year?

Tiger Woods

Woods is back looking for his fifth US Masters title. His last one was back in 2005 winning a playoff against Chris DiMarco. His last outing this season was at THE PLAYERS where he finished in 30th place. That kind of sums up his season, he has been fairly steady. He made the cut in all five appearances with two top-ten finishes, the best being a 10th place at WGC Mexico. Last year he was out at Augusta and finished outside of the top thirty.

Key Us Masters 2019 Contenders

Dustin Johnson is short at 10/1 odds to go and collect the Masters* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm). He put in a fantastic run to win the WGC Mexico Championship, five strokes clear of Rory McIlroy though. Like McIlroy, Johnson is trying to land his first ever Masters title too. His best finish was a T4 a couple of years ago. It is three straight top ten finishes at Augusta for him now so could be trending towards the big one.

Spain’s Jon Rahm has been in pretty handy form with three top fifteen finishes in his last four outings for the season. He took a sixth-place return at the recent Valspar. This is just his third crack at the US Masters, landing a fourth-place finish last year and at 18/1 odds, he does have each way appeal* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm). One of the other players who have been in great form this year is Justin Thomas.

Thomas has yet to crack the top fifteen in a US Masters event. This will be his fourth attempt at the tournament. He has landed an improved result in each of those years though. He is bold and will take on the course again, which could pay dividends. He has shown flashes though of lack of temperament under pressure this season, as he did at the Phoenix Open when he was in control. Still, he has five top-ten finishes this season.

Trends

Half of the last ten winners had won a tournament in that calendar year
8 of the last 10 winners had earned a top 3 in the season prior to winning the Masters
Since 2011 all winners have had at least a T3 in the calendar year of their win
All but one of the last eleven winners had played at least six tournaments in season prior to lifting the Masters
Six of the last ten winners have been in their 30’s
All but three of the last ten winners have been ranked inside the 20
All but three of the last ten winners had partaken in at least three previous Masters
7 of the last 10 had previously made the top 20 at Augusta
Each of the last 10 winner had all had a top ten finishes earlier in the season
8 of the last 10 won on US soil two years prior to landing the Masters
8 of the last 10 winners have been at 20/1 or longer
8 of the last 10 winners earned their first ever Major title

More 2019 US Masters Contenders

Justin Rose is now heading into his 15th Masters tournament. From those previous events, he has carded 11 top 25 finishes and 5 top tens. Everything is just a good fit for him at the tournament and he has that supreme consistency. He has gotten a win this season under his belt at the Farmers and ended with a 21st place finish at THE PLAYERS. Will be looking for just his second Major title of his career though.

Brooks Koepka has taken half of the last six major tournaments. That’s nothing to be sneezed at then. He is the reigning PGA Player of the Year, however, he hasn’t broken the top ten at Augusta before. He has been getting better and better at the tournament though and was just outside of the top ten last time there. Is back after missing through a wrist injury last year. A fit Koepka at 25/1 each way isn’t a bad proposition* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm).

Rickie Fowler was second last year and he has a bit of recent form with his second place at the Honda Classic this season. He really hasn’t been at his consent best so far this season, but with a shift in equipment, he went well in the opening two rounds at the Valero Texas Open on the weekend. He couldn’t hang in there though and faded out of contention. That’s two top-five finishes at the Masters and he has been in the top fifteen in four of the last five. That Major title eludes him though.

Predictions

It seems that the key things are age, particularly under 40, someone in form and someone who had a crack in August before. We don’t like the chances of a defending champion and world number ones haven’t got a particularly great record in the US Masters either. Rickie Fowler isn’t a bad option but at 18/1 but is a little bit on the short side and would have expected him to be at least 20/1* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm).

Given the prices of recent winners, it’s hard to find big appeal on the likes of Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Jon Rahm. Brooks Koepka could easily be a nice fit for the event at 25/1 each way* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm).

The other option is Hideki Matsuyama at 33/1 odds* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 7th, 2019 at 9:49 pm). There’s plenty of Augusta experience there from him, and his current form has been solid, plus he is looking for his first major. So he fits the first-time winner mould nicely.


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