With Harry Kane missing through injury, the chances of Liverpool’s Mo Salah claiming the Premier League Golden Boot this season have dramatically increased. The last Liverpool player to finish the season as the top flight’s top scorer was Ian Rush back in 1984 and currently, Salah is 10/3 odds at Ladbrokes to win* (betting odds taken on March 15th, 2018 at 6:44 p.m.) this year’s race.
Salah has scored 24 league goals for Liverpool this season in the top flight, level with Harry Kane, but with the Tottenham man out until April, Salah could well pull ahead now in the race to land the title. Kane and Salah are three goals ahead of Man City’s Sergio Aguero, so it is pretty much a three horse race as it stands.
But what about the Golden Shoe for Europe’s top goal scorer for the season? Not too surprisingly the recent editions have been dominated by three men, Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Cristiano Ronaldo who have won the last nine editions of the Golden Shoe between them (Messi 4, Ronaldo 3, Suarez 2).
How it works
This isn’t just a straightforward game of who scores the most goals. Why? Well because based on UEFA coefficients, which in turn relies on the results of each league’s clubs in European competition over the previous five seasons, it gives players in the tougher leagues as much chance to win the Golden Shoe as those players in the easier leagues.
For example, Benfica’s Jonas has scored 31 goals this season in his domestic league, but as the Primeira Liga isn’t ranked as highly as say the English Premier League or Spain’s La Liga, goals count for less there when it comes to the Golden Shoe.
Points are awarded by multiplying the number of goals scored by the difficulty rating of the league they play in.
UEFA’s League Rankings & Goal Factors
Top 5 = goals multiplied by a factor of two
6 – 21 = goals multiplied by a factor of 1.5
22 and lower = goals multiplied by a factor of 1
The Contenders
Salah and Kane’s 24 goals puts them level with Edinson Cavani, Ciro Immobile and Lionel Messi at the time of writing and all of those are in leagues with a factor of two. Bayern Munich goal-scoring machine Robert Lewandowski is on 23 goals and enjoying a phenomenal 2018, while Sergio Aguero, Luis Suarez (and the injured Neymar) are all sat on 21 goals.
So there is a tight race and it is Lionel Messi who is the Ladbrokes 4/7 favourite* (betting odds taken on March 15th, 2018 at 6:44 p.m.) in the Golden Shoe betting market for the fifth time in his career. Edinson Cavani looked to be his most serious contender but his goals have dried up a bit since Neymar went out injured, which suggests that he was thriving of the chances being created for him by the Brazilian.
Ciro Immobile is having such a powerful season for Napoli and is worth considering at the 4/1 odds* (betting odds taken on March 15th, 2018 at 6:44 p.m.) given that he is level with Cavani, Messi and Salah. But then Lewandowski just never stops scoring so has every chance of getting in the mix.
But can anyone stop the threat of Lionel Messi? He is back to his best and beyond that even, this season. He has moved on again to another level and the way he is going it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see him land the title again.
Just one Englishman has ever won the Golden Shoe. Want to take a guess? Alan Shearer maybe? Michael Owen? Andy Cole? Robbie Fowler? Wayne Rooney? No, it is Kevin Phillips for his 30 goal haul in the 1999-2000 Premier League season.
