Betfair Hurdle – Saturday, February 16th, 2019
There is plenty of status and history surrounding this one. This epic Newbury treat is the richest handicap hurdle in the UK. Of course, it is going to attract a lot of attention. Of course, it is going to be drawing a lot of top talent looking for that prestige and prize money.
In the early betting we have Al Dancer and Getaway Trump as the 11/4 joint-favourites* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 14th, 2019 at 9:46 p.m.).
Betfair Hurdle 2019 odds*
Al Dancer 11/4
Getaway Trump 11/4
Didtheyleaveuoutto 8/1
Lisp 8/1
Mont des Avaloirs 10/1
Ballyandy 10/1
Grand Sancy 12/1
Zanza 14/1
Jollys Cracked It 14/1
William H Bonney 16/1
Ar Mest 20/1
Nordic Combined 20/1
Equus Amadeus 20/1
Anemoi 20/1
Magic Dancer 25/1
Nelsons Touch 25/1
Distingo 25/1
33/1 bar
* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 14th, 2019 at 9:46 p.m.)
Novices know how to win
It is some field. It always is when you are looking at such a fantastic race. It is a race that is always hotly contested as well and it is also a fixture of the season which throws up plenty of breakthrough wins.
Seven of the last ten renewals of the Betfair Hurdle have been won by novices. That’s some pretty strong trend and just last season there was a big breakthrough for Kalashnikov.
While a good young talent in his own right, the fact that he took down a stellar field against more experienced horses in such a big race. This is just the calibre of this race because the quality in it runs deep. The novices aren’t just there to make up the numbers.
So instead of focusing on the field, it could be a matter of how to break it down. Trends in the way to do that really.
Betfair Hurdle Trends
There is the novices factor and there is the other key factor of recent action. There seems to be a big advantage going into the Betfair Hurdle for any horse that has already been out of the previous couple of months. Kalashnikov in 2018 is the most recent example of just that. He had ran in early January last year (finishing 2nd) before stepping out and landing the win at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle.
This isn’t a race in which to just turn up out of the blue, trying to find form in. It’s the opposite. Winners at Betfair Hurdle generally already have form behind them. Four of the last five winners of the Betfair hurdle had been out in a graded novices’ hurdle in the previous race before the big one and had performed well. Other notable recent winners like My Tent Or Yours and Zarkandar has won their previous races before landing the Betfair Hurdle.
Rating and age
This is a tremendous field and it’s not worth trying to pull out a winner from the lower ratings really. All but one of the last ten Betfair hurdle winners have been at least at a 132 rating. So it’s worth a look at the upper ranks. Then there is the popular old form factor of age. What comes into play here? The sweet spot is the five and six-year-olds. Those are the ones trending in the big race. Each of the last ten renewals have been won by an horse of one of those ages.
Trainer Time
Nigel Twiston-Davies is just one of two trainers to have won the Betfair Hurdle more than once in the last decade. The other is Gary Moore, who has actually won it three times (the other being outside of the decade time frame we’re looking at).
Cheltenham Double Dream
This is a big feeder for the Cheltenham Festival in the form of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. But still, there has never been a novice who has managed to follow up a win in the Betfair Hurdle by landing the Supreme Novices. Kalashnikov did come close last year though, finishing second at the Cheltenham race, following in the footsteps of Get Me Out Of Here and My Tent Or Yours who also followed up Betfair Hurdle wins with second place finishes at the Supreme Novices.
Putting the trends together
We aren’t going to go deep into the field because right there at the head of the market with joint favouritism is A lDancer. He ticks a lot of boxes in being trained by Twistan-Davies and being a novice for starters.
His rating is perfect (141 on the day) and on top of that, he had a very impressive win just back in early February too at Cheltenham in the Catesby Handicap. Of course, there are no certainties, but with the six-year-old lining up so well with trends including age, he has to be a serious consideration at 11/4 odds* (Betting Odds were taken from bet365 on February 14th, 2019 at 9:46 p.m.)
