One cannot imagine that there will have been total accord about the decision of owner John Snook’s to run Thistlecrack in Boxing Day’s feature, the 32Red King George VI Chase at Kempton.
Trainer Colin Tizzard already had last year’s winner, CUE CARD, earmarked for the Grade 1 chase and he was an odds-on chance with all major bookmakers following the withdrawal of 2015 Gold Cup winner Coneygree. But the market has undergone an overhaul with the inclusion of crack novice Thistlecrack in the four-day declarations and he’s now challenging his stablemate for favouritism. Punters who have already backed Cue Card at very short odds will not be happy as the 10-year-old is now out to 5/4 with several bookmakers, including Boylesports, but those of us who haven’t yet had a bet should be viewing this as an opportunity.
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King George VI Chase History and Trends
The King George VI Chase was first run in 1937. Apart from a couple of years in which it was transferred to Sandown Park, it’s always been staged at Kempton. The race was named in honour of the new King, who himself was an enthusiastic National Hunt follower. But despite this, the race did not immediately catch the public’s imagination with the first two runnings only attracting fields of four runners.
However, after Halloween and the great Mandarin won in the Fifties, the race took off in terms of prestige. It’s now viewed as a mid-season championship for staying chasers, sandwiched between the Betfair Chase at Haydock and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A £1million bonus is on offer for any chaser that wins all three races and Cue Card is a third of the way there having won the first leg of the triple crown.
The roll of honour is a who’s who of British jumping with past multiple winners including Wayward Lad, Silver Buck, Desert Orchid and Kauto Star.
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won it nine times since 1997 but it’s usually worth noting any French-bred – they have been successful in nine of the last 11 years. Silviniaco Conti is the only two who fits that criteria this year but he is not the same horse that won the King George in 2013 and 2014 and he’s come off worse in his last three meetings with Cue Card. All recent previous winners had won a Grade 1 and that’s a worry for supporters of Josses Hill (also a doubtful stayer) and Thistlecrack.
For all of his immense promise, this will be a first try at the highest level for Thistlecrack and 3m around a sharp track like Kempton may not the perfect setting for the novice. Runners are on top of the first of the 18 fences quickly and it’s important to find a rhythm early. Thistlecrack has not been foot-perfect so far and you would think that the Gold Cup in March would be a more suitable showcase for his staying abilities so I won’t be tempted by the 11/8 available at bet365 – the Tizzard duo have been backed almost to the exclusion of all others
Look on the bright side, you are getting value with Cue Card now that his stablemate has declared. He is at his peak judged on his 15-length defeat of Coneygree at Haydock and will attack from the front again. Tea For Two won the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on this card 12 months ago but is not up to this level and was put in his place by Josses Hill at Huntingdon – it has to be Cue Card again.
King George VI Chase Current Best Odds
Cue Card (5/4), Thistlecrack (11/8), Josses Hill (12/1), Tea For Two (14/1), Silviniaco Conti (25/1)
