Bundesliga returns after Covid-19 shutdown – a look at the latest odds

The lay of the land in the main Bundesliga markets

The Bundesliga is coming back. The return of the German top-flight signals the first action across the big five leagues since the Coronavirus shutdown.

May 16th is the big kick-off as the season resumes, albeit behind closed doors.

But what is the current state of play in the division? Here we take a look at how things look following the shutdown on March 13th.

It will definitely be a case of all eyes on Germany when this kicks off.

France’s Ligue 1, the Netherlands’ Eredivisie and Belgium’s Pro League have all scrapped their seasons.

Others like England’s Premier League and Italy’s Serie will be paying close attention.

Fixtures Saturday 16 May

Augsburg v Wolfsburg
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin
RB Leipzig v Freiburg

Sunday 17 May
Cologne v Mainz
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich

Monday 18 May
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen

The status of the Bundesliga title race

Bayern Munich haven’t things all their own way this season in the Bundesliga. But that having been said they will be returning with a four-point advantage. That is over second-placed Borussia Dortmund.

Both Bayern and Dortmund won each of their final four games before the COVID-19 shutdown. So that’s going to be some massively tough momentum to try and get back.

It was probably the chasing Dortmund who will feel the effects of the break more as they were starting to get some heavy pressure back on Bayern with seven wins in their final eight games before the break.

But then Bayern’s best part of the season was from the middle of December through to the shutdown.

They dropped just two points in an eleven match sequence and were just bang in form, resisting all of the challenges at the time that Dortmund was throwing at that.

Bayern are 2/9 odds on to win the league title* (betting odds taken from bet365 on 7th May 2020 at 21:07 GMT).

The big game to come between Dortmund and Bayern is on May 27th when they meet at the Westfalenstadion.

They will each have played two matches on their return before that. That could have a massive bearing on the title.

Dortmund have the tougher return

For the restart, Dortmund definitely has the tougher return. They open with a massive derby game against Schalke, followed by Wolfsburg and the clash with Bayern.

Those are all top seven sides that Dortmund faces in that run. Dortmund are 9/2 to win the Bundesliga title* (betting odds taken from bet365 on 7th May 2020 at 21:07 GMT)

Bayern Munich kick off their return with a game out at Union Berlin before hosting Eintracht Frankfurt who restarted 11th and 12th in the table respectively.

Then Bayen go to Dortmund. Earlier in the season when Bayern Munich hosted Dortmund, it turned out to be a walk in the park for Bayern who won 4-0 at the Allianz.

The chasing pack in the title race

When the league action picks up against there will be six points separating the top four sides of Bayern Munich, Dortmund, RB Leipzig and Monchengladbach.

Then comes Bayern Leverkusen who are only two points back of fourth-placed Monechglandbach.

It is those five who are, as it stands, in the scrap for the top four places and therefore Champions League action next season.

5th placed Leverkusen will resume with a healthy 10-point game of sixth-placed Schalke with nine games to play.

So with that cushion, they will see a big chance to try and push on and challenge for that top-four place. Leverkusen are 13/10 to reach the top four, with Mochengladbach currently 2/5 to hold on.

Bundesliga W/O Bayern Munich

The cushion that Bayern Munich have with nine games to go, is a nice situation for them to be in.

So much so that there is little to play for in the Bundesliga outright winner market to the moment. But there is plenty of value kicking around in the Without Bayern Munich market.

With only two points separating 2nd place Dortmund and 4th placed Monchengladbach, this is a viable market to approach.

Of course, Dortmund are the odds-on favourites in the Bundesliga W/O Bayern Munich market. But gauging just where teams are going to be at upon the return in terms of fitness levels and focus, remains a mystery.

This may be a good opportunity to try and take them on. Before the break would have been a little tougher to justify opposing them.

Perhaps now with a small margin and so many variables coming into play on the league return, Leipzig could be worth a small flutter to edge theme.

Bundesliga W/O Bayern Munich Odds*

Borussia Dortmund 8/11
RB Leipzig 11/10
Monchenglad Cab 20/1
Bayern Leverkusen 25/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on 7th May 2020 at 21:07 GMT)

Bundesliga relegation

What about the situation at the other end of the table? Things haven’t looked good for Paderborn all season, who are going to fall back down a tier.

Paderborn have 16 points from 25 games and are six points from safety. They were on a four-match losing streak before the shutdown.

Werder Bremen also appear to be in trouble with one point from their final six games earned before the shutdown. They are the two favourites to go down. Bremen start two points ahead of bottom side Paderborn.

In the relegation playoff spot are Dusseldorf.

The team who finishes third from bottom in the Bundesliga players the team who finishes third in Bundesliga 2 for the place in the top flight the following season.

Fortuna Dusseldorf have a four-point gap on Mainz to try and make up to avoid going there. But they are also four points better off than second from bottom Bremen.

Fortuna Dusselddorf are 4/7 for the drop* (betting odds taken from bet365 on 7th May 2020 at 21:07 GMT).