Academy Awards 2018 – Oscars Betting

Will Hollywood flood The Shape Of Water with Oscars?

Guillermo del Toro - © Shutterstock
Guillermo del Toro - © Shutterstock

To some, the Oscars represent everything that is wrong with Hollywood. Over-indulgence, self-congratulatory and out of touch with reality.

The Academy Awards celebrates its 90th anniversary in 2018, however, and thousands will again line the pavements outside of the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, hoping to catch just a glimpse of their favourite tinseltown stars on the red carpet, where they will no doubt be assaulted by those ‘Hollywood reporters’ lucky enough to have got a pass to the big night. That must be a curious way to make a living, asking inane questions about something that somebody else has basically made up!

The big prizes are, of course, Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director. However, as we found out last year, nobody has won anything until the fat lady (or more likely in Hollywood, the very thin lady) has sung. I’m sure safeguards are in place to ensure the ceremony won’t suffer another ‘La La Land’ moment but we are dealing with the industry in which anything is possible

Guillermo del Toro has pretty much got the Best Director category wrapped up according to bookmakers and you won’t get bigger odds than 1/10. I haven’t seen ‘The Shape Of Water’ but I’m sure it’s a cut above the standard monster movie. That said, the haunting tale of unforbidden romance between a fishy alien and a dumb, downbeat cleaner is not something I’d normally pay to watch.

Del Toro’s aquatic love story is also prominent in the betting to be Best Picture (15/8 with Boylesports) but I have seen ‘Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri’ and ‘The Shape Of Water’ will have to be some movie to pip what I thought was a superb piece of cinema.

Racially-charged, gritty, complex and as realistic a portrayal as you are ever likely to see of smalltown America, it’s superbly written and acted and deserves its place at the head of the betting to be Best Picture (Evens with Coral). That said, there are some in the Academy who will find some of its subject matter uncomfortable but, with a strong woman as its central character, there should be enough support for it to get the gong in the current climate.

‘Lady Bird’ is 12/1 with Boylesports in the same category but low-budget coming-of-age movies rarely do well at the Oscars and I fear that this one will be no exception.

Briton Gary Oldman is just 1/20 with Boylesports to win Best Actor for his portrayal of Winston Churchill in ‘ Darkest Hour’ and unbackable. Personally, I thought the late Robert Hardy did just as good a job but Oldman should be going home with the Oscar.

The betting for Best Actress is almost as cut and dried according to layers, who have Frances McDormand as a hot 1/12 favourite. If Meryl Streep is 100/1 in the same market, you know you’ve done something right and McDormand, who last won an Oscar back in 1997 for ‘Fargo’, is both memorable and disturbing in ‘Three Billboards’.