2019 Oscars Preview – Sunday, February 24th, 2019
The 91st Academy Awards turn up on Sunday night in Hollywood, California, a celebration of the movies. This will be the show which honours the best movies from 2018. Actor and comedian Kevin Hart was supposed to be hosting the event but has pulled and for the first time in over 30 years, the Oscars will have no host.
The two movies heading into the night with the most nominations are The Favourite and Roma, both of which have received 10 Academy Award nominations.
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Oscars Best Picture Odds*
Roma 4/11
Green Book 1/4
The Favourites 20/1
Bohemian Rhapsody 25/1
Black Panther 28/1
Black Klansman 28/1
66/1 bar
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm)
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There is a clear favourite to sweep up the best picture award, and that is Roma. The movie is the depiction of a live-in housekeeper in Mexico City in the 1970s. While she is caring for the family, she also has to plan for motherhood of her own. It’s a strong 4/11 favourite in the category and it is well worth doubling it up with Roma taking the Best Foreign Language Film title too* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm). You could extend that by putting in Director Alfonso Cuaron to win Best Director too.
Bohemian Rhapsody won the Best Motion Picture at the recent Golden Globes (Roma not in contention) but not that, nor Green Book (whose results at awards shows has been a bit contentious) is likely to get there. The interesting thing about this year’s Award Season is that there has been different winners in the major categories at the leading awards this year.
Roma, for example, was successful at the Producers Guild, Black Panther rocked the SAG, while Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favorite were the ones which showed up strongly in the eyes of the American Cinema Editors. Roma is likely to get it still though, given the nods towards it in the Actor categories, but Black Panther has arguably been seen by more, applauded by more and actors voted heavily for it at the SAG. Could the momentum see it sneak through the back door and create a popular, yet big, upset?
Prediction: Roma
Best Director Odds*
Alfonso Cuaron 1/25
Spike Lee 10/1
Pawe? Pawlikowski 33/1
Yorgos Lanthimos 40/1
Adam McKay 40/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm)
There is overwhelming favouritism on Cuaron, the director of Roma. Cuaron has won this category before back in 2014 for space drama Gravity featuring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. He’s won multiple awards throughout his career at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics’ Choice Awards and so on. Spike Lee is looking for his first award in this category and would be the most likely to pull off an upset. It would be a big one though at 10/1 odds* .
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron
Best Actor odds*
Rami Malek 1/7
Christian Bale 4/1
Bradley Cooper 25/1
Viggo Mortensen 33/1
Willem Dafoe 100/1
(betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm)
Rami Malek, for his portrayal of Queen frontman Freddie Mercury in the biopic Bohemian Rhapsody picked up an award at the recent Golden Globes for his performance. That was a little bit of a surprise at the time as there had been a lot of focus on Bradley Cooper for A Star Is Born. But Malek’s win there has seen his odds tumble in overwhelming favourites in Oscar 2019 beating.
The film itself hasn’t actually that critically well received really, but Malek has earned sweeping praise around the world. He’s the front runner. Christian Bale, for his portrayal of Dick Cheney, is not a bad outside option. But Copper is likely to be on the backburner again.
Best Actress Odds*
Glenn Close 1/8
Olivia Colman 9/2
Lady Gaga 20/1
Yalitza Aparicio 40/1
Melissa McCarthy 66/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm)
This is a really interesting category. Leading the way is Glenn Close for her role in The Wife. That was enough to get her the award for the Best Actress in a Motion Picture at the Golden Globes. Will this be Close’s year? No-one has ever been nominated so many times for an Academy Award as she has, while never winning.
Even though the odds suggest there is a clear winner, Olivia Colman’s role as Queen Anne in The Favourite got her the Best Actress Award (Musical or Comedy) at the Globes. There is Lady Gaga who has taken big praise for her role alongside Bradley Cooper in A Star Is Born and then Yalitza Aparicio, star of Roma.
Prediction: It will the year for Close, not the greatest of movies, but a stellar performance.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali 1/20
Richard E Grant 9/1
Sam Elliott 16/1
Adam Driver 33/1
Sam Rockwell 50/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm)
Another powerful front runner at the head of a market for Oscars 2019 betting. Mahershala Ali has swept the board this awards season for his role in Green Book. He will be on the lookout for the second Academy Award of his career. This does look to be a pretty big lock.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actress odds*
Regina King 1/3
Amy Adams 4/1
Rachel Weisz 6/1
Emma Stone 18/1
Marina de Tavira 25/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm)
Regina King leads the way here for her role in “If Beale Street Could Talk”. This is actually a strong category really and we think that there is enough to take on the favourite in this one. Amy Adams, in the brilliant Vice who played Lynne Cheney had such a big dynamic that there is a chance that she could get there. This is a category in which we’ll support the upset.
Prediction: Amy Adams
Best Original Screenplay Odds*
The Favourite 1/2
Green Book 9/4
Roma 15/2
First Reformed 14/1
Vica 40/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm)
This category is for original written work, nothing which has been adapted from another source before. For example, Black Klansman, who we think will win the Best Adapted Screenplay category at 1/3 odds* (betting odds taken from bet365 on February 21st, 2019 at 1:47 pm), was based on a memoir. What you have here is a pretty competitive market with The Favourite the current odds-on leader.
But can you eliminate Roma or the Green Book? The Favorite is right up the with 10 nominations for the 2019 Oscars, alongside Roma. However, this may be the only realistic award that is going to win. Snappy, original and caustic, it’s some fantastic writing. The voting on this could be close and it is one of the few categories in which there could be big suspense.
Prediction: The Favourite
