ATP Monte Carlo Rolex Masters Tennis Predictions & Winner Odds

Nadal goes for number twelve in Monte Carlo

This event is special as it is the first of three big Masters 1000 tournaments which are played on clay. So this is really the first big step towards the French Open 2019. Spain’s Rafael Nadal has been a dominant force down the years at the tournament. Will he be able to add a twelfth and his fourth in a row?

ATP Monte Carlo Winner Odds*

Rafael Nadal 5/6
Novak Djokovic 3/1
Dominic Thiem 7/1
Alexander Zverev 14/1
Stefanos Tsitsipas 25/1
Kei Nishikori 25/1
Stan Wawrinka 33/1
Karen Khachanov 40/1
Marin Cilic 33/1
Bar 50/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 15th, 2019 at 8:18 pm)

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Nadal back from injury

So it has been four in a row for Nadal in Monte Carlo after taking a win over Kei Nishikori in last season’s final. He actually had a tricky draw as well in having to deal with Karen Khachanov, Dominic Thiem and Grigor Dimitrov before the final. It is the clay swing of the season now and this is where Nadal really comes to life.

It has been a quiet season from him and one that has yet to deliver a title. He lost the final of the Australian Open to Novak Djokovic, suffered a loss in the second round in Mexico against Nick Kyrgios and then recently had to withdraw ahead of his semi-final clash with Federer at Indian Wells. So it has been a tough year for him because of physical setbacks.

Djokovic searches for form

Nadal is second seed at the tournament and with things being up in the air over how his latest return is going to go, does that hand the baton to Novak Djokovic in this tournament who is the 3/1 second-favourite* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 15th, 2019 at 8:18 pm)? Djokovic has claimed the title twice before in Monte Carlo, the first in 2013 and then two years later.

But the season for Djokovic has gone much the same way as Nadal really. Without the injury though. He won the Australian Open over Nadal and then it has been just five games since then because of poor performances. He lost to Philipp Kohlschreiber in the third round at Indian Wells and then fourth round of Miami against Roberto Bautista Agut. How will the switch to clay serve him?

Other contenders

So with Nadal coming back from injury and Djokovic searching for his top form, does that open the field up wider? Potentially so. Basically, because of Nadal’s form in Monte Carlo, it’s hard to get a read on other players. Dominic Thiem came into a very nice bit of form with a title at Indian Wells in which he got past Roger Federer in the final. He was a losing quarter-finalist in Monte Carlo last year and is 7/1 to make a run at this season’s title.

Germany’s Alexander Zverev reached the semifinals of Monte Carlo last year, losing there to Nishikori there. But it has been a disappointing season from him so far, his best effort coming in as a losing finalist in Mexico to Nick Kyrgios. Last year’s losing finalist Nishikori is a big price to deliver and his form hasn’t been there this season really. Stan Wawrinka was a 2014 winner at Monte Carlo but has barely made even the most minimal of impacts there since.

Predictions

The temptation is to stick to the known and go with Nadal. But not at that short price. Djokovic, who is no mug on clay, of course, is more likely to find his game quicker than Nadal, who is coming back from injury. So he looks the stronger proposition of the two at 3/1 odds* (betting odds taken from bet365 on April 15th, 2019 at 8:18 pm), with the one most likely to break the pair being Thiem.


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