ATP World Tour Finals Betting 2017 Winner Odds & Predictions

Indoor experience of Federer to tip the balance

/
Roger Federer (SUI)

It is down to the ATP World Tour Finals now for the last big event of the 2017 calendar year on the men’s tennis tour. The Finals have been deprived of some of its top talents with Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic all having to miss out before of injury issues. But both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are scheduled to play and not too surprising they are heading up the market as the biggest threats, with Federer trading as 4/6 favourites with William Hill and Nadal at 7/2.

 Goffin v Dimitrov - ATP Finals 2017 Infographic

Qualification

Through the season, players pick up points from regular tournaments which count towards the ATP Race to London. Points are collected from 18 tournaments in total and of those, results at the 4 Grand Slam events and the 8 mandatory ATP Masters tournaments will all count, along with the best results from any other six tournaments which have ranking points. The eight players with the highest tally of points gets to go the ATP World Tour Finals. Rafael Nadal topped out the points on the Race to London, with Federer second. There will be three debutants at the event, Alexander Zverev, Grigor Dimitrov and Jack Sock.

Qualified Players

Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Alexander Zverev, Dominic Thiem, Marin Cilic, Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin, Jack Sock.

ATP World Tour Finals Odds

Rafael Nadal 4/6, Roger Federer 7/2, Alexander Zverev 15/2, Grigor Dimitrov 10/1, Marin Cilic 12/1, David Goffin 20/1, Dominic Thiem 22/1, Jack Sock 22/1

The Draw

The eight players are split over two groups in a round robin format and from that, the top two from each group move through to the semi finals. The winner of the first group plays the runner up of the second and vice-versa.

Pete Sampras Group: Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Grigor Dimitrov, David Goffin

Boris Becker Group: Roger Federer, Alexander Zverev, Marin Cilic, Jack Sock

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal has never actually won this tournament before. The closest he got was runners up spot against Roger Federer back in 2010. Recently at the Paris Masters, the Spaniard had to withdraw because of an injury and basically said that he would be trying his best to be ready for this. It has been a storming season from Nadal who has won six titles this year and two for those with two Grand Slams, the French Open and the US Open. He will finish the season a World Number One as well. Nadal has a positive head to head record over every player that is in the draw throughout his career, including a 23-15 match head to head lead over Federer. Nadal has a 67-10 win/loss record for the season. Is he fit though?

Roger Federer

Because of Nadal’s recent injury, backers could naturally gravitate towards Federer going all the way in this one. Like Nadal, Federer has won six titles this year with two Grand Slams included the Australian Open and Wimbledon. He decided not to even bother with Paris Masters last week to prepare for this. He’ll turn up and do the business and he is 49-4 for the season in matches. Surprisingly though he only has a positive head to head record against four of the other seven players, trailing Nadal and Thiem, while sitting level with Zverev. He has the tougher draw, just because Zverev is in his group and the German will give Federer a run for his money.

Alexander Zverev

The young German posted a 54-20 match record for the season and while he never really showed up in any Grand Slam this year. But he won five other tournaments, including two ATP World Tour Masters, collecting the Canada and Rome titles along as his biggest successes. So the rising star has really made big strides this season and he was the top qualifier for the ATP Next Gen Finals but skipped it to prepare for this. He has lost all three previous matches against Nadal, has held Federer to a 2-2 record from four meetings and of all the other players only has a positive head to head record against Cilic, Dimitrov and Goffin. But still, he hasn’t had all that many games against anyone in the field really. A genuine title contender.

Dominic Thiem

The Austrian has lost more matches this season than any other player in the Finals. That’s got to be a disadvantage for him going in this one you would imagine. The youngster has only picked up the one title as well this year which was outdoors on clay in Rio. It hasn’t’ quite been the season of success that it could have been from him after winning four titles last season. Of further concern will be that he trails in head to heads against Nadal and Goffin, who he has to duel within the group.

Marin Cilic

The Croatian has only a head to head lead against Dimitrov of the other finalists taking part here. He trails all of the others in respective head to heads. He is a former Grand Slam Champion let’s not forget, so knows his stuff, but like Thiem, he only has one title this year, outside on the clay in Istanbul. He’s in the tough group with Federer and Zverev and will probably struggle to get through.

Grigor Dimitrov

The Bulgarian could be the dark horse of the tournament here. He took an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 in Cincinnati to give his season a real boost and added to his wins in Sofia and Brisbane. So that’s three titles for him this season and the Cincinnati title was the biggest of his career. Dimitrov has a 44-19 record for the season, but only holds an 8-29 overall head to record from matches against all of the other competitors in the tournament. It’s unlikely that he would beat a fit Nadal, but could handle himself against Thiem and Goffin.

David Goffin

Only Nadal and Zverev have won more games this season than Goffin has (54-22) so that’ s a huge plus for the Belgian. He is in a tricky group with Nadal, who he trails in their head to head and Grigor Dimitrov who he also trails. He is up on Thiem but that may not be enough to get the Belgian out of this group. He has two minor titles under his belt this season, winning in Tokyo and Shenzhen.

Jack Sock

The American took a win at the Paris Masters against the odds, to get a place in London. That was a big effort, but it may have been a very different story if Nadal hadn’t have pulled out. Sock beat Filip Krajinovic in the final, the player who benefited directly from Rafael withdrawing from their quarter final match. Sock has won the least amount of matches this season of all eight finalists with a 36-19 win loss record for the season. It is going to be a big ask for him to get through to the semi finals.

Prediction

The most likely outcome is that Federer and Zverev will get out of the second group. Hard to tell what order because things are even in their head to head. Federer wasn’t quite himself in the build up to the US Open this season but will the extra rest since then have served him well? Federer has a 12-1 head to head record indoors on hard court against all of the other competitors in the field, his only indoor loss happening Nadal. That should count for something and is worth backing to edge the group, with Zverev even money at William Hill to qualify.

The key to progress could be avoiding Nadal in the semi finals. There’s no clear picture of how sharp Nadal is now going to be because of his recent injury scare. Nadal is 8/13 to reach the Final. He’s worth a poke to get through the group stage, but either way, he’d have a tough semi final against either Federer or Zverev most likely. Grigor Dimitrov has appeal to put in a strong challenge here and may be worth a flutter at 5/2 with William Hill to win the group over Nadal. While Dimitrov makes our best dark horse, but the indoor experience of Federer tips it in favour of the Swiss legend in the outright market.

ATP Finals 2017 Infographic