The build-up to the Australian Open has now been all about Andy Murray. Not in terms of him winning the event because that’s a slim chance at best of that happening. But the Britain has announced that this could be his very last tournament before stepping away from the game into retirement. It could be a pretty emotional affair, therefore.
But at the business end of things, it is Novak Djokovic who is the 6/5 favourite to win the event* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm). It is Roger Federer though who is heading back to Melbourne Park with a title defence as his target.
Australian Open Winner Odds*
Novak Djokovic 6/5
Roger Federer 9/2
Rafael Nadal 8/1
Alexander Zverev 12/1
Karen Khachanov 25/1
Marin Cilic 25/1
Kei Nishikori 25/1
Kevin Anderson 28/1
Nick Kyrgios 33/1
Stefanos Tsitsipas 40/1
Grigor Dimitrov 40/1
Borna Coric 40/1
Dominic Thiem 40/1
Milos Raonic 40/1
Andy Murray 50/1
Daniil Medvedev 66/1
Denis Shapovalov 66/1
Roberto Bautista-Agut 66/1
David Goffin 66/1
Bar 100/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm)
Table of Contents
Rule Change
There is a notable change at this year’s Australian Open. For the first time ever there will be a final set tie break. Before it has just gone on and on in the final set until someone gets a two-game advantage. But if a final set gets to 6-6 then there will be 10-point tiebreaker in that fifth set to settle match.
There is going to be a permitted break of 10 minutes for men’s singles players after the third set if the temperatures are reaching those hazardous levels. Temperatures were reaching 40 c last year during the tournament. Female players already have an allotted break at the end of the second set.
World Number
There is an extra edge to the 2019 Australian Open action as well because the World Number One spot is on the line. Novak Djokovic is the current number one but he could lose grip of it. Rafael Nadal could wrestle it away from home at Melbourne Park, but the only way that happens is if Nadal wins the tournament outright and Djokovic doesn’t get any further than the fourth road. It seems a little implausible.
Top Eight Seeds
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Rafael Nadal
3. Roger Federer
4. Alexander Zverev
5. Kevin Anderson
6. Marin ?ili?
7. Dominic Thiem
8. Kei Nishikori
Novak Djokovic
Djokovic was on fire at the back end of the 2018 season and he is the 6/5 favourite to get another Australian Open title this year* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm). Djokovic is a six-time Australian Open champion with his last title coming in 2016. In his last two appearance at Melbourne Park, he has taken a second round exit and then a fourth-round exit last year. But those have been campaigns where he has been struggling for fitness and form. There doesn’t appear to be any issues surrounding his preparations this year and is a strong favourite to get back in the winner’s circle. He is looking for his third straight Grand Slam title having won Wimbledon and the US Open in the second half of last season.
Rafael Nadal
The least productive Grand Slam in terms of titles for Rafael Nadal has been the Australian Open. He only won the title award once and that was back in 2009. He has lost three finals since then without having delivered a title, the most recent being in 2017. Nadal was a losing quarterfinalist at the 2019 Australian Open. He had to pull out of the end of season ATP World Tour Championships because of injury and his early 2019 preparations didn’t go well either. A thigh strain kept him out of an appearance at the Brisbane International as well. It’s been a while now since he has played competitively. A fit Nadal is probably Djokovic’s biggest threat. How ready is he though?
Roger Federer
Federer is the reigning champion and the 37-year-old isn’t done yet. Federer is looking for his third straight title at Melbourne Park and is the 9/2 second favourite to do it* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm). He is level on six Australian Open titles with Djokovic and one more title brings up the magic 100 number of pro-titles for him. He really didn’t have a great impact not the other Grand Slam events of last year. But he knows how to manage his time and body and it would be a shock to see anything less than a quarter-final berth. Federer has made the semi-finals of the Australian Open in all but one of his last fifteen appearances. That’s consistency of the highest degree.
1st Quarter Winner Odds*
Novak Djokovic 2/5
Kei Nishikori 6/1
Daniil Medvedev 16/1
David Goffin 16/1
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 33/1
Fabio Fognini 40/1
50/1 bar
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm)
Novak Djokovic has a really manageable section in the top quarter. The highest seed that he could end up bumping into along the way is Daniil Medvedev and that would be a fourth-round showdown. Djokovic opens against Mitchell Krueger and while he could get a meeting with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the second round, there’s little to oppose Djokovic in his section. In the second section of the top quarter, it is Kei Nishikori who is the top seed. That is the highest ranked player that Djokovic could meet in the quarterfinals. Looking over the setup of the draw it’s hard to see an upset happening anywhere to stop Djokovic.
2nd Quarter Winner Odds*
Alexander Zverev 9/4
Borna Coric 6/1
Dominic Thiem 13/2
Stan Wawrinka 7/1
Nick Kyrgios 7/1
Milos Raonic 13/2
Hyeon Chung 14/1
Sam Querrey 22/1
Lucas Pouille 25/1
Gilles Simon 33/1
50/1 bar
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm)
The second quarter looks far more competitive. The top seed is Alexander Zverev which means that he is the one who is going to be highly projected to be lining up against Djokovic in the semifinals. The young German got the better of Djokovic at the ATP World Tour Finals at the back end of last year. Zverev is on the hunt for his first Grand Slam title and started to come on a little more strongly last season. He really is the one outside of the big three to get his hands on the title. The top section has a great first round match of home talent Nick Kyrgios taking on former Wimbledon finalist Milos Raonic. Also in that section is Stan Wawrinka. In the second section of the second quarter of the draw, Austria’s Dominic Thiem anchors it. It actually looks like a wide-open section with a couple of dangerous floaters in there like Lucas Pouille, Hyeon Chung and Borna Coric.
3rd Quarter Winner Odds*
Roger Federer evens
Marin Cilic 11/2
Karen Khachanov 5/1
Stefanos Tsitsipas 9/1
Andy Murray 12/1
Roberto Bautista Agu14/1
Gael Monfils 33/1
Bar 50/1
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm)
At least one of the top six in the section will fall in the first round. That’s Because Roberto Bautista-Agut meets Andy Murray. Andy Murray is the underdog for that duel against the Spaniard. That is from the top section of the third quarter where Maric Cilic is the highest seed (6th). With Andy Murray not expected to go deep into the event, there could be a great scrap between Bautista-Agut and young Russian Karen Kharkov to prevail for a potential fourth-round meeting with Cilic. It is Roger Federer who is the favourite for the quarter as he goes in the second section of the third quarter. He opens against Denis Istomin and could end up meeting Britain’s Dan Evans in the second round. It could also work out he meets another Brit in Cameron Norrie in the third round. Looking at this section, there’s no-one realistically going to prevent a fourth-round appearance by Feds.
4th Quarter Winner Odds*
Rafael Nadal 6/5
Kevin Anderson 4/1
Grigor Dimitrov 6/1
Alex de Mianu 16/1
John Isner 16/1
Tomas Berdych 16/1
Kyle Edmund 16/1
Diego Schwartzman 33/1
80/1 bar
* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm)
Will this section be all about Nadal? There are question marks over his fitness. He opens his campaign against James Duckworth and the highest seed he could met before the fourth round is Alex de Minaur (27th). At that fourth round, he could be opposed by Britain’s Kyle Edmund who does see a good draw ahead of him if he can get past Tomas Berdych in the opening round. However, like Nadal, Edmund had to pull out of a warm-up tournament with an injury issue. That is the second section of the fourth quarter. In the top section of that quarter, we have the most open one of all. The top seed is Kevin Anderson followed by John Isner. Neither are the great of threats which means that he likes of Grigor Dimitrov could have a shot. It appears to the be the section which is most likely to have an upset on the path to meeting Nadal in the quarterfinals. Looking ahead it does mean there is the potential of a Nadal v Federer semi.
Predictions
It is hard to see anything but the win for Djokovic in this one. He has had a couple of upsets recently at the tournament, but he is the strongest of the big three heading back to Melbourne Park at the moment. As proven in the last couple of years you can’t write off Federer at this one and there’s a quote of 11/4 on a Djokovic/Federer outcome in the Name The Finalists market* (betting odds taken from bet365 on January 11th, 2019 at 6:00 pm).
Nadal really doesn’t have the track record at Melbourne Park to raise enough interest and with Murray not likely to get too far, the two big guns and Djokovic and Federer look set. The player with the most potential of upsetting the market would be Alexander Zverev, who would have the pressing issue of likely having to get past Djokovic before the Final.
