Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate Handicap 2019 Odds and Predictions – Horse Racing Betting June 29

The Northumberland Plate is the biggest race of the year at Newcastle. It’s a massive social event in the north-east but ‘The Pitmen’s Derby’ probably doesn’t attract many colliers nowadays – the mining industry has long disappaeared from the area. The race is now run on the Tapeta all-weather surface at Gosforth Park, the Turf on the Flat course having been dug up three years ago, but some long-standing trends still apply.

Northumberland Plate History and Trends

First run in 1883, the Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate, under new sponsorship again, is the highlight of the three-day Newcastle meeting staged at the end of June. A Class 2 handicap, the race is limited to 20 runners and run over 2m but this is only the fourth year that it has been run on the all-weather.

• Four of the last seven winners have had single-figure draws, including Antiquarium in the first running on Tapeta, but Higher Power won from stall 13 two years ago and Withhold came out of stall 11 12 months ago, though a high draw is a disadvantage.
• Age-wise, there are no specific trends though there has only been one winner aged older than six in the last 14 years.
• In the last seven years, horses rated between 95 and 104 have dominated.
• Eleven of the last 12 winners had finished in the first five on their previous start.

Northumberland Plate Recent Winners

The draw has been particularly cruel on the three Mark Johnston runners and Ian Williams’ trio hasn’t fared much better, though Speedo Boy has been well backed and makes some appeal at 16/1 with William Hill.
But connections of ante-post gamble Gibbs Hill can’t complain at stall five. Roger Varian’s gelding has been twice successful over 1m4f on the all-weather and his half-brother Band Of Gold stayed 2m. The stable is going well but the general 4/1 is surely too short given the competitive nature of the race (he was a 20/1 chance only days ago) and the six-year-old will have to overcome an 11lb rise in the weights.

BARTHOLOMEU DIAS is a general 12/1 and has just as much potential over a longer distance. Though he’s also been doing his winning over 1m4f, he was second to King’s Advice (a best 11/1) over 1m6f at Wolverhampton in April and is 12lb better off. Proven on the track and surface and well drawn to grab a favourable position from stall six, Charlie Hills’ Tapeta specialist has more in his favour than most and looks a cracking each-way bet.

Last year’s winner Withhold arrives following a similar lay-off to when successful last year. He obviously goes well fresh and has been gelded since a run in Australia in the autumn but has 8lb more to carry than 12 months ago.

Willie Mullins hit the crossbar a couple of times at Royal Ascot and Ireland’s leading jumps trainer sends over Stratum (a best 12/1) and Dubawi Fifty (a general 14/1) would have every chance on last year’s form but has been off the track for a long time. Red Galileo (14/1 with William Hill) beat Speedo Boy and Proschema at Newmarket three weeks ago but has to carry a penalty and last ran on an artificial surface more than four years ago.

Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate Current Odds – can Withhold record back-to-back victories

Gibbs Hill 4/1, Withhold 9/1, King’s Advice 11/1, Stratum and Bartholomeu Dias 12/1, Proschema, Red Galileo, Who Dares Wins and Dubawi Fifty 14/1, Speedo Boy and Time To Study 16/1, Austrian School, Making Miracles, Mootasadir and Cosmelli 25/1, Aircraft Carrier 33/1, Fearsome and Desert Skyline 40/1, Shabeeb and Cohesion 50/1
(Odds correct at 2.00pm June 27)