With millions of euros on offer on ‘Arc’ weekend at Chantilly and a £90,000 Ayr Gold Cup consolation race being run at Haydock, the first leg of the Autumn Double – the Betfred Cambridgeshire – has almost sneaked up on us unannounced. The 1m1f handicap isn’t even the most valuable race on Newmarket’s Saturday card – that’s shared by the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes and Middle Park Stakes – but it is the weekend’s big betting heat and an annual puzzle.
Punters have been trying to find the winners of the two big handicaps run on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course (the second leg is the Cesarewitch) since well before off-course gambling was illegal. A shilling double on the two winners could keep the average worker in bread and ale well into the New Year – providing your back-street bookie didn’t do a runner with his illicit takings.
That, of course, was in the days before satellite channels or even TV was common. The big betting races in the calendar were still something on which everybody had a flutter, though you had to wait for the evening editions of the newspaper to find out if you’d won. You can bet on anything and everything, nowadays, of course. A temptation too hard to resist for some people, which is why there has been calls from the Labour conference this week to get bookies to fund the Gamble Aware programme.
Cambridgeshire History and Trends
There has been horse racing on Newmarket Heath since before King Charles I lost his head in an argument with Oliver Cromwell. Charles II and his brother, the future James II, were regular attendees. Though, in those days, races were matches between aristocrats not handicappers partnered by professionals.
The Cambridgeshire was first run in 1839 and seven horses have won it twice. Bronze Angel, in 2012 and 2014, being the most recent.
There has been no winner aged seven or older in the last 10 years and only one winner aged six, underlining the theory that this is now generally a race for unexposed handicappers. Ten of the last 11 winners had finished in the first five in their previous race so recent good form is also a positive with most winners having had a run in the preceding seven weeks.
The effect of the draw has diminished, however, in a race in which the field invariably races in groups of two or more. Two of the last three winners were drawn low but Bronze Angel was drawn 21 and 11 respectively for his two triumphs while Prince Of Johannes started from stall 31 when successful in 2011 and last year’s winner, Spark Plug, started from 28. No less than six of the 16 winners this century have been returned at single-figure odds, three of them as clear favourites. The average winning odds in that time are just 14/1.
Betfred Cambridgeshire Current Best Odds
Thundering Blue (7/1), Big Country (12/1), Brorocco and El Hayem (14/1), Chelsea Lad, Leader Writer, Naval Warfare and Very Talented (16/1), Master The World (20/1), Qassem and Novoman (22/1), Carry On Deryck, Gm Hopkins and Linguistic (25/1), Greenside, Eddystone Rock and Weekend Offender (28/1), Examiner, Kings Gift, Central Square and You’re Fired (33/1), Bravery and Sinfonietta (40/1), Dolphin Vista, Nicholas T, Sir Chauvelin, Tha’ir, Battle Of Marathon, Captain Cat and Cote d’Azur (50/1), Mulligatawny, Red Tea, Secret Art, Briardale and Sands Chorus (66/1)
Thundering Blue is the clear favourite at around 7/1 having won his last three starts. The form of his latest victory at Sandown was franked when the runner-up win a Listed race next time. The four-year-old doesn’t look straightforward but David Menuisier has secured the services of champion jockey Jim Crowley again. He handles good to soft so will be hard to keep out of the frame, though probably wouldn’t want any more significant rain.
Last year’s second and third – Carry On Deryck and Very Talented – make the line-up again. Central Square is a general 33/1 and has a touch of class. He also boasts placed form over the course and distance so could be interesting if handling the ground. Big Country was beaten under a length by Ballet Concerto in the John Smith’s Cup at York and the winner has gone on to land two Group 3 races. Mike Appleby’s charge has to be a threat to all under Silvestre De Sousa and the 12/1 with Coral makes plenty of appeal.
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Andrew Balding has a couple of likely candidates for this year’s Betfred Cambridgeshire, though Brorocco (a best 14/1) has a penalty for his recent victory at Newbury and has done all of his winning on good ground or faster.
NAVAL WARFARE (16/1 with Coral among others) wasn’t beaten far in a Listed race at Sandown 10 days ago having won on good to soft on the July course at Newmarket the time before. He looks as though he’ll be suited by stepping up from a mile so is awarded the selection.
