Three of the runners in this Saturday’s Betfred Classic Handicap Chase ran in last week’s rearranged Welsh Grand National but none of the trio fared particularly well. Emperor’s Choice fell at the first having won previously at Haydock while On The Road unseated his rider at the fourth. Milansbar was well behind when he got rid of his jockey at the 12th fence and that doesn’t bode well for a quick turnaround at Warwick, where the fences come thick and fast and also take some jumping, especially when the going is soft as it will be this weekend.
Punters will be taking careful note of this year’s race as it was won last year by One For Arthur, who went on to land the Grand National at Aintree. He is trained by Lucinda Russell, who has entered Itstimeforapint. However, it’s hard to imagine that the 10-year-old will fulfil his engagement given he only ran at Catterick on Thursday, where he was pulled up.
Betfred Classic Chase History and Trends
This Grade 3 staying chase began life at the Warwick National in 1974 with the current conditions adopted in 2004. It was frequently abandoned due to icy conditions in the Seventies and Eighties but enjoyed an uninterrupted run between 1988 and 2009, though was lost to the weather again in 2010.
Colonel Christy won the race as a six-year-old in 1981 while Midnight Madness, Fiddlers Pike and Willsford have won it as 12-year-olds. The oldest entry this year is 11, however, while Ballycross is the youngest at seven.
The one outstanding trend in this 3m5f contest is that no recent winner has been off the track for more than six weeks – Sir Mangan and Indian Castle haven’t raced for 59 and 57 days respectively. Winning form beyond 3m is also a plus as the race usually turns into a slog.
Kerry Lee runs Goodtoknow and Krackatoa King as well as 2016 winner Russe Blanc, who is 2lb lower but was only ninth last year and is hard to catch right nowadays. Goodtoknow was runner-up last year but is 2lb higher and has failed to complete in three of his last four runs. Krackatoa King is stepping up markedly in class.
Missed Approach currently shares favouritism with Sir Mangan at a general 7/1 in a wide-open betting heat. The former led until the third-last in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in which Cogry was pulled up. He’s been dropped 6lb by the handicapper and was a useful staying novice last season when second in the National Hunt Chase over 4m at Cheltenham. Stamina won’t be an issue and he’s one of the more likely winners. It’s a shame that one notable stat is against Sir Mangan as he has always looked a thorough stayer and has only gone up 4lb since winning over a trip too short at Bangor.
I like CRESSWELL BREEZE at the 8/1 with William Hill as Anthony Honeyball’s mare has already won over 3m4f this season and is reunited with Sean Bowen after her latest third in the London National at Sandown. She travelled strongly that day and was only outpaced after jumping the last – the handicapper has left her on the same mark so it’s hard to see her finishing out of the frame granted luck in-running. Chepstow fourth Ballycross is 12/1 with Sportingbet but was pulled up in this last year and there is still no real evidence that he stays 3m5f.
Betfred Classic Handicap Chase Latest Odds
Missed Approach and Sir Mangan 7/1, Cresswell Breeze 8/1, Krackatoa King 9/1, Cogry 10/1, Ballycross 12/1, Crosspark, Goodtoknow, Emperor’s Choice and Indian Castle 14/1, On The Road and Topper Thornton 16/1, Russe Blanc and Milansbar 20/1, Itstimeforapint 28/1
