I’ll refrain from naming the well-known racing pundit who once put in print that a high draw in the Ebor Handicap on the Knavesmire at York was a kiss of death.
It’s nonsense, as the stats prove, with three winners since the turn of the century having started from stall 20 or higher. Only one winner since 2003 has been drawn lower than 10 and that’s because almost the first mile of the 1m6f Ebor is run in a virtually straight line. If a jockey can’t get the position he wants within that distance, he or she shouldn’t be riding horses for a living. Needless to say, the draw will not figure in our significant trends section.
Ebor Handicap History and Trends
The Betfred Ebor Handicap is run over one mile and six furlongs for horses aged three years or older and is the most valuable flat handicap in Europe.
Established in 1843, the race is now one of the staying highlights of the Flat season carrying total prize money of more than £275,000. Trainers target it with their premier stayers with many past winners using it as a springboard to tackling Group company and races like the Melbourne Cup.
In the entire history of the race has a horse managed to win the event twice and that was almost 100 years ago. The roll of honour includes dual Champion Hurdler Sea Pigeon and smart stayer Further Flight but this is not a race in which fancied horses have a particular good record with all but two of the last eight winners starting at double-figure odds – winning favourites are rare.
Only one recent winners has been older than six but only one four-year-old has won the race in the last eight years and no three-year-old has been successful since 2001. Only two winners have carried more than 9st 4lb to victory since the turn of the century, though that may start to change as the weights are rising in line with the higher class of entry.
More than half of the last 15 winners had run at least three times that season and won over at least 1m4f.
I remember putting up BATTERSEA last year and he ran a fine race to finish fourth. Roger Varian’s gelding his back for more and carries 2lb less. He’s had just one run this year, never landing a blow in a Group 3 at Sandown in May, but a lack of action is not a concern as he’s gone well fresh in the past and doesn’t stand much racing. A classy stayer and a specialist over this sort of trip, the 14/1 with 888sport is worth considering as useful apprentice David Egan reduces his weight by a further 5lb.
888 sport are offering a fantastic offer for new customers called “Bet 10 Get 30 “. To get it, just register here, place your first bet of min. £10 888Sport will give you £30 in Free Bets from which £10 are exclusive to use only on mobile. Additionally, you can get £10 for Casino if you place a bet of at least £5.
To register go to 888 sport and click on the ‘register now’ beside where you would normally place your login details. This will pop up another window, simply fill in the details, click the box stating you are over 18 and you are ready to bet. Terms and conditions apply, please see full detail directly at 888 Sport.
Magic Circle has already won at York this week and only has a small penalty but how much that effort took out of the Chester Cup fifth is anybody’s guess and this is probably too short nowadays. Dubka and Natural Scenery both ran well in a group race at Goodwood last time but Flymetothestars had every chance when favourite in the Northumberland Plate and is 2lb higher.
Betfred Ebor Handicap Current Best Odds
Flymetothestars (7/1), Ivan Grozny (8/1), Magic Circle (10/1), Dubka (11/1), Scarlet Dragon and Top Tug (12/1), Wild Hacked, Naketa and Battersea (14/1), Star Storm, Soldier In Action and Natural Scenery (16/1), Seamour (22/1), Lord Yeats and Clever Cookie (25/1), Cohesion, Winning Story, Arch Villain and Elidor (33/1), Maleficent Queen (50/1)
