Betting strategies (part 4)
STRATEGIES and GOALS.
I have used this strategy quite successfully over the past few months. I use BETFAIR prices for all examples.
Look for a match were the HOME team is favourite.
The AWAY side must be quoted at not greater than 3.50. (This is it’s TO WIN price, so it’s LAY price will be a little larger). You can use other criteria to reduce the number of qualifiers.
LAY THE AWAY SIDE.
It’s not possible to be precise about results as different punters will choose different teams, different leagues, even. There are an abundance of leagues from which to make choices.
I have done a quick run thru’ a few Summer leagues and taking all games that qualify, there is an average of two winning bets from every three.
The trick with this method is in the way you choose your teams.
Leagues were the Away sides have a poor record are a good place to start. On the other side of the coin, leagues with better than average Home winning records are ideal, too. Don’t forget to check historical results as well.
This is just the basic outline of the strategy.
Dependant on how you stake your bet and the amount you want to win, there are a few "insurance bets" you can make.
Lay the Away side and then cover 0 – 1 and 1 – 2. This allows for the "turn-up" which can spoil your day. (Very few away teams win by 2 – 0, just check the results). To use this type of bet, you need to get your staking right. As the backers stake is your winnings, I find that if I "dutch" the two scores to ONE THIRD of the backers stake, I am at least covered to get out with very little, if any, loss, if things don’t go according to plan.
If you can bet in-play, all the better.
Make your bet and then wait for the Home team to score. This is the signal for you to BACK the Away side.
I did this yesterday (Sat 5/9). I LAYED HUDDERSFIELD at M.K.Dons. I couldn’t get back to my P.C. as early as I would have liked and just made it as Huddersfield equalised for the second time. Unbelievably they were then offered at 5.1 to win. I took what was on offer and turned a possible loss into a "green book".
Depending on how much you want to win, this strategy lends itself to many ways of interpretation.
Another possible scenario is LAY the away side and wait for the home side to score. Then cover for an AWAY win by backing 1 – 2, 1 – 3, 2 – 3 and ANY UNQUOTED. I know this is a very unlikely thing to happen but I just want you to look at it and maybe come-up with a little snip of your own. YOU must decide for yourself how to approach things. Trial and error. Go slowly at first and then play-up your winnings. Most of the systems being sold, started out as a very basic idea which has been elaborated on by the seller.
GOALS and MINUTES.
These two go hand in hand like lovers. And the prices for them are quite volatile as games move forward. Also who scores the goals has a big influence on the price.
The earlier a goal is scored the less will be the price movement. Similarly, a late goal will cause quite a large movement in all related markets.
The main thing about goals being scored is the fact that the immediate price change will, given the right circumstances, be quite substantial. Often much much bigger/lower than it should be. However to be able to take advantage of the bigger prices you have to be "on the ball". These prices don’t last for very long. This is mainly due to the betting bots that are used by many punters. As soon as an anomaly is spotted by one of them, "POW" it’s gone. In a way it’s unfair on most punters but I’m afraid that’s life. If you can afford to purchase one of these ROBOTS (software programme), I’m sure it will pay it’s way handsomely. No, I don’t have one. Maybe one day! Maybe.
The time when a goal is scored can also be very important. This is mainly a "spread betting " wager although there is a bet available on BETFAIR that offers odds on FIRST GOAL SCORED covering 10 minute intervals. The "spread" of goals scored is quite interesting and deserves an article to itself. So that’s what I have in mind for next time.
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