Betting strategies (part 5)
GOALS and THE CLOCK (PREMIERSHIP)
Large amounts of money are bet on GOALS being scored.
I looked at stats prior to 2002 and compared them with the last FOUR seasons in the PREMIERSHIP.
One point that jumps out is that DEFENCES are getting meaner. There are blips here and there but nothing to worry ourselves about.
The FOUR seasons prior to 2002/3 teams scored an average of 1003 goals per season.
The last FOUR Premiership seasons this has reduced to 955. Only in one of the last FOUR seasons has the GOALS SCORED figure bettered the older average. This was in 2007/8 when the scorers actually hit the net 1002 times.
In each of the last FOUR seasons HOME teams have averaged little more than 1.5 goals per game. AWAY teams doing a little worse, as we would expect, at a little under 1.1 goals per game. I couldn’t believe these figures at first but they are bona-fide. (Courtesy, nowgoal.com). However, a lot of money is wagered not on how many goals are scored but just WHEN they are scored. Breaking the time down into five minute blocks gives us some idea when to take the plunge.
As can be seen the 85 to 90 minutes block produces by far the greater number of goals for a five minute period. Understandably as there is always ADDED TIME. Anything up to FIVE minutes is often allowed.
FIRST HALF PRE 2003 2005/6 – 2008/9
0 – 5 mins 49 39
6 – 10 45 47
11 -15 45 45
16 – 20 45 44
21 – 25 49 34
26 – 30 42 47
31 – 35 49 (25.8% of first half 44 (26.8% of first half
goals were scored goals were scored
36 – 40 49 in the last TEN 42 in the last TEN
MINUTE period). MINUTE period).
41 – 45 64 68
As expected, the best time for goals is the last ten minutes. Here, the last five minute spell is often extended by a minute or two. Nevertheless, it does seem that teams do try that little bit harder during the final five minutes.
SECOND HALF.
46 – 50 49 53
51 – 55 57 49
56- 60 57 53
61 – 65 60 55
66 – 70 57 56
71 – 75 57 51
76 – 80 57 (28.2% of second half 61 (29.4% of second half
goals were scored goals were scored
81 – 85 64 in the last TEN 55 in the last TEN
MINUTE period). MINUTE period).
86 – 90+ 91 103
These stats don’t tell us too much except goals are more likely to come in the second half. Although it would appear that defences are more liable to concede the longer the games goes on.
It may be more worthwhile to look at larger time gaps.
Even when enlarging the time spread to TEN OR FIFTEEN minutes the "old" figures are best on all bar one occasion
The last quarter hour appears to be the best time to look for goals. Approaching TWO in EVERY NINE goals are scored in this "spread".
Perhaps looking at individual teams may be another string to the punters bow. Some teams do seem to relish turning it on as time runs out.
PREMIERSHIP AND THOSE ELUSIVE DRAWS.
As we all know draws are very scarce in the PREM this season.
However, I’m certain this won’t last for long. The LAW OF AVERAGES will surely balance things out. All most certainly when we’re not expecting it to do so.
The situation is tailor made for those of us who like to TRADE on football games.
The idea is very basic. Choose a match that looks to be fairly close but where you expect the home team to win and to score first. Scoring first is the key.
LAY THE Away team before kick-off. Then when the home team score, LAY THEM. The result that often "knocks" an expected GOOD home win is a DRAWN match. just think how many times it’s happened to you and spoilt you Saturday coupon.
Using this technique isn’t rocket science but does give you an extra string to you bow. If your HOME team win so do you. If they lose you WIN. If THEY draw you WIN BOTH of your lay bets.
Not an unbeatable strategy but if you’re prudent in your choice of home teams, you will turn a possible losing bet into a winning one..
