Betting Systems – The start (part 3) – draw matches

How to win Football Betting

Betting System – The start (part3)

Having looked at Home and Away price-ranges it is now the turn of the Drawn Matches.
Finding OVER ACHIEVERS in this bracket is proving to be quite a feat. The figures are not anywhere near as comprehensive as for Homes or Aways. In reality it would be easier to quote figures for the UNDER ACHIEVERS. So for this article I’m going to set out both sets of stats where appropriate.

PREMIERSHIP.                      UNDER ACHIEVERS.
2.76  TO  3.00     80%            3.01  to  3.25    
(beware- small sample only).      3.76  to  4.00
                                  6.01  to  7.00    16.68%

SPAIN PRIMERA.
4.51  TO  5.00     22.86%         3.26  TO  4.00    22.84%

ITALY SERIE "A"
This league does not stands alone on "funny numbers".
Between 1.26 and 2.50 there have been, so far, 12 successful draws, within range, from just 25 matches. 48%. Then………
2.76  to  3.00
3.26  to  3.50     30.52%.        3.51  TO  5.00    17.46%

GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
3.26  TO  4.00     27.34%         4.O1  TO  5.00    14.87%

FRANCE DIV 1.
2.76  TO  3.00                    3.26  TO  3.50
3.51  TO  3.75                    3.76  TO  4.50    21.20%
4.51  TO  5.00     28.58%                 

PORTUGAL SUPER LIGA
3.01  TO  3.50                    2.76  TO  3.00
3.76  TO  4.50     28.67%         3.51  TO  3.75
                                  4.51  TO  6.00    18.31%

HOLLAND EREDIVISION
2.76  TO  3.25                    3.26  TO  3.50
4.51  TO  5.00     36.71%         3.76  TO  4.50
                                  5.01  TO  6.00    17.96%

The main Summer Leagues.

IRISH PREMIER.
4.01  TO  5.00     21.43%         3.51  TO  4.00    18.73%

BRAZILIERO.
2.26  TO  3.00                    1.00  TO  1.25    53.85%
2.76  TO  3.00                    3.01  TO  4.50    22.17%
4.51  TO  5.00     60.90%

These three ranges may well be misleading
as they account for only 32 games.

The UNDER-ACHIEVERS column makes interesting reading, at first.
A strike rate of 53.85% looks anything bar Under-achieving. However when we realise the EXPECTED strike rate at these odds is a minimum of 72% it’s easy to see just how bad they are. A level stake LOSS would accrue if backing each qualifier.

SWEDEN ALLSVENSKAN
3.26  TO  3.75                    1.00  TO  1.25    12.50%                     
4.10  TO  4.50     28.21%         3.76  TO  4.00
                                  4.51  TO  5.00    17.33%

USA MLS.
2.76  TO  3.25                    1.00  TO  1.25    16.75%
                                  3.51  TO  3.75    18.18%
3.76  TO  4.00
4.51  TO  5.00     33.37%

These last three leagues show just how appalling the odds that are offered really are. The equivalent of 1 to 4 for a draw is really an insult to the punters.

Just a little less annoying than the actual strike rates.
As always look for VALUE when making your bets.
Two recent games drove this home to me. Arsenal away to Liverpool were offered at 3.75 and the Portsmouth at home to the same Liverpool were at 6.2. Obviously the ODDS MAKERS still haven’t realised Liverpool aren’t the team they were. Look for VALUE, when making your bets.

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Why all this palaver if his system is any good.
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