Betting System – The start (part4)
In the last three articles I’ve looked at the "Over-Achievers" and to a lesser extent the "Under-Achievers". The trick now is to find a way or ways to use this data successfully.
As with any system FORM must be employed in some way. It’s not much use picking a game where the odds are "right" without giving credence to some aspects of form.
Possibly the easiest winner to look for is a HOME. All the stats back up this assumption. Indeed many PROFESSIONALS consider that HOME sides have a "built-in" advantage of 5 to 7%.
Next RECENT FORM must be considered, too. There are many sites or ‘papers which publish tables covering the last six games. This is an ideal place to consider. Just look at the Premiership table and compare it with that for the last six games. Plenty of food for thought there.
Using your knowledge try to at least draw up a shortlist of games for the next round of matches. Then check your list against current form. If still having doubts, give a thought to previous encounters between each pair of teams. At this point I would begin to eliminate, by PRICE RANGE. If none fit the criteria that’s fine, just start over again using a different league. Always remember, You Don’t Have to Bet.
This idea is really basic and experience should be gained by PAPER TRIALLING.
Any method of selection can be refined, or added to, using ideas or knowledge which you have gained over time.
I’ve never yet seen a system that cannot be refined or added to, for the better.
Looking for AWAY winners in this way will probably be time consuming. Any possible away selection should have really solid RECENT FORM. Don’t forget, a possible AWAY selection is more likely to end as a Draw than a possible HOME selection. Just check those NAILED-ON away selections in any newspaper or sporting paper.
Furthermore, as far as aways are concerned, I would be apt to look at the problem from a different angle altogether and build a list of UNDER-ACHIEVERS and look for teams to LAY. However that’s just my preference.
DRAW SELECTIONS.
Now this is the nightmare of most predictions. It can be done as with HOMES or AWAYS. However I would be more tempted to use the UNDER-ACHIEVER figures for the selection process and look, once again, for selections to LAY. In some leagues that would give you a better than four in five chance of finding a suitable selection.
I’ve been looking at the 1 2 X returns for the leagues I’ve covered in the last three articles. I’ve calculated the averages for the three returns as of pre-Boxing Day results. To make the figures more accurate I’ve taken out of each section the highest and lowest return. This is often practised by the more erudite professionals as it removes figures that can be sometimes misleading.
Homes 47.3% Draws 25.3% Aways 27.4%. The figures for a random selection of leagues throughout the world are not too disimilar. Namely, Homes 46.3% Draws 27.2% Aways 27.15%.
How do these figures stand up against those of previous years? I am reading a book of football stats and other such things which throws up many items of interest. Since the start of the season prior to the start of the PREMIERSHIP and the first four seasons of the PREMIERSHIP the following stats were…………… HOMES 47.5% DRAWS 27.0% AWAYS 25.5%.
The surprising thing is the consistancy of the figures, especially the HOMES. Perhaps there’s a lesson to be learned here.
Next I’d like to look at the "bits and pieces" that go to making-up a Ratings System. Who knows, we may well get a step nearer ELDORADO,
