This should really come in three versions. The Full Monty and the Lite Version and the Super Lite.
Being mid-season, I’ll opt for the Lite Version, myself.
The Full Monty.
This should begin at the start of the season. However I would, personally just "go thru’ the motions" until teams have played at least six games each.
Obviously records must be kept in order to up-date ratings. The ELO system starts with 1000 points per team. Whether this is a good thing or not is debateable and really down to individual choice. I would only begin with a bank if I intended to use the system for cup-ties. Something I would be loathe to do. Cup-ties are often a death knoll to ratings. If the ELO model is to be followed, a starting figure for each lower division must be devised, first.
I have devised my points system on the premise that the home team has a built-in advantage and subsequently points awarded to aways teams are "LOADED" to take this factor into consideration.
As goals win matches you will see that I give this a big consideration when rating each match, up to a point. If a team wins, say 4 – 1 I don’t really see that it is worth less than the same team winning 5 – 2. So I do not give a rating for any score above 4 – 4. If a match goes about this, I regress by one goal at a time from each team. e.g 5 – 2 would become 4 -1 and 7 – 3 would become 4 – 0. From my experience of football over 65 years there is a point in high scoring games where teams tend to relax and having the points in the bag can get a little careless. It can be pointed out that this might not seem to be correct when there are 4 – 4 draws. True but there are always exceptions to all rules and laws.
Recent form, should always take precedent. Whether or not it should be rated at a higher level than earlier form is debateable. For my own part, I would keep the first six match ratings intact and them when the seventh game was rated, I would halve the rating of what would be the very first match to have been rated. Then match by match the oldest "full" rating would be halved. Always rounding -up any half point. Recent form must always be given fullest consideration.
Historical Form. Whilst "what is past, should remain in the past", this doesn’t seem to apply to football results. Some teams just can’t "cut-it" on certain grounds or against certain opposition. There was a time when ‘Spurs went over 90 years without a win at Anfield.
So to give some consideration to this phenomenon I propose to take into consideration the last three games played on the home teams ground. Nothing complicated, just allow for each win, draw or loss. As usual, the away side will receive a slightly higher allowance for wins or draws.
The "Lite" version works exactly as the fuller version except that the last six matches are taken into consideration plus the three historicals too.
The Super Lite works slightly differently in that the last six games only are rated, on a slightly different scale and takes virtually no time at all.
Having a ratings system to use is just the first step. The next step is the most vital step. How to decide the size of the gap, between each teams rating, that will define whether it becomes a home, an away or a draw. This is best covered by keeping accurate records of each game rated. It will be easier to compare these figures if they are turned into percentages. (Take the home teams rating, then divide it by the total of BOTH teams ratings and multiply by 100. The away teams percentage will be 100 minus the home teams percentage). This method will be ideal for use with the Full Monty, due to the number of rated games growing over the season. It can, of course, also be used with the other two versions, if required.
What percantage decides what is a prospective home win? I consider at least 60% of the ratings total would give a sound indication of a HOME WIN. For an AWAY win, I would be a little harder to persuade below 65%.
Where to operate the ratings? Perhaps, look for a league or leagues that have an above average return of home wins. Three that are amongst the strongest leagues are Braziliero, our own Premiership and Italy’s Serie "A". maybe look at the leagues that don’t get too much attention from the bookies. The odds -makers spend more time on the stronger leagues than say, the Conference League. So if you’re looking for additional "value", you could do worse than checking-out some of the minor leagues.
Another thing to beware of is the "Unexpected" result. To overcome this, become selective in the matches you choose to bet on. One of my ways of sorting them is to divide the league table into four. Using the Premiership this would leave you with just ten teams to worry about. The reasoning about this is that when an "Unexpected" result turns up, it usually involves team(s) from these two areas. Additionally, keeping to middle of the table teams will give you teams that are closely matched and therefore you will get better odds for your stake.
I also think you will find some "solid" away lays using these ratings. Braziliero, MLS and the Premiership hold a lot of promises for this type of bet.
Another point worth memtioning is with regard to "Streaks". Be wary of a team on a streak. Especially an away side. When streaks reach around EIGHT be very wary. The only times I am prepared to think lightly about a "streak" is when it involves a home sides unbeaten run. However once it were to reach twelve I’d then steer clear of it until it ended.
As I always maintain, an individual’s experience is vital when operating systems. No matter what the subject matter is, horses, football or anything else.
Put your own stamp on it. A tweak here, a tweak there. If it doesn’t work out, just return to the basics and have another go. You’ve nothing to lose.
GOOD LUCK.
Results Home
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Results Away
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The above points system is used for both the Full Monty and Lite Version.
The following small set of ratings is for use with the Head to Heads, as well as the Superlite (last six games only) version:
Ratings
Home Win 10pts
Home Draw 5pts
Away Win 12pts
Away Draw 7pts
Use the same scale of rating figures as above.
