Betting System – The start (part5)
THE MAKING OF A RATINGS SYSTEM. (I HOPE).
This is the most ambitious thing I’ve attempted, betting-wise.
There are many pitfalls ahead, I just hope I can miss the worst of them.
This will be a step-by-step job. Rather like building a skeleton and them putting the meat on it.
The biggest headache will be which components to include it the building programme.
Most rating systems take into consideration all THE CURRENT SEASONS FORM. I aim to be a little different and do my building around the most current form. The last six games. So using this method will take some time to formulate each week, as stats will need to be added and withdrawn each week. I will also look to historical data in a minor way. Just on a head-to-head basis for each match. One advantage I will have, is that I won’t have to retain and up-date, all the form for every team every week. (Unless I want to do so). It will actually be a bit "pick and mix". Each week I will pick and choose from the list of fixtures and them rate the matches I’m most interested in. On the other hand, it wouldn’t really be too big a chore to just choose a single league and update the stats weekly. It will give a good choice.
The biggest question is which type of ratings will I use. There are many different types. The chess world has been using one built by PROFESSOR ELO, for some years now and they use it to define the World Standings of all players. This system has a starting value of up to 1000 points for each player, Although it does take ALL previous matches into account. As I will, basically, be using a smaller database of form figures etc, and only six matches as my form guide, I intend to use a starting figure of 350 points for each team. I find this will eleviate any possibility of having NEGATIVE RATINGS.
I also want to move away from the usual three points for a win and one for a draw. I think points should be awarded according to the size of a win. Similarly, shouldn’t an AWAY win merit more than a HOME win?
Is an AWAY draw only worth the same as a HOME draw. Surely there should be some difference in rewards for these results.
I also want to look at and reward, SHORT TERM STREAKS. I’m certain that there is a place for such stats within a ratings system.
I don’t intend this to be a stand-alone system. rather a d-i-y affair where different aspects of a match can be turned to the individuals use.
So, this is the skeleton. The easy part. Putting the meat on the bones will be, at least interesting. The hardest part is going to be apportioning points for this and points for that Getting the correct proportions will be quite tricky.
There’s yet another new Horse-Racing system on offer this week.
The "WINNINGS" from past results is over £200,000. What isn’t mentioned is that this is to £1,000. stakes. (Yeh, just normal stakes for your average working man). In addition the manner in which the winnings is collated is to say the least, dubious. Not my musings but those of a well respected professional.
