On the eve of the long-awaited, already-once-postponed meaningful vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, bookmakers are weighing up what will happen should the Prime Minister, as expected, lose heavily in the House Of Commons this week.
The PM has been desperately trying to drum up support for her controversial exit proposals but it doesn’t appear that her words have comforted opponents on both sides of the House. She told supporters that Britain may never leave the EU if she loses Tuesday’s vote but MPs are not being fooled by the increasingly desperate scare-mongering coming out of Downing Street. The main deal-breaker is still the question of a proposed Northern Ireland back-stop which has infuriated the Democratic Unionists, who hold the balance of power in the Commons, but not the only problem that MPs have with the deal.
The Ulster contingent has been propping up May’s government since she lost her majority in an ill-advised General Election two years ago. But the Ulster Unionist Party can not support any proposal which leaves Northern Ireland at risk of being segregated, politically or economically, from the rest of the United Kingdom. Ironically, the issue that has divided Parliament and the country since the EU Referendum has united Brexiteers and Remainers alike against Mrs May. She has negotiated a deal with the EU but two Brexit Secretaries couldn’t stomach the contents and many of their Conservative Party colleagues have roundly condemned the proposals as a poor deal for Britain. It has also united opposition parties against the government, who all have their own agenda, and led to calls for a vote of no-confidence – bookmakers help us look at what might happen should the PM lose on Tuesday.
It is still odds-on that there will not be a second referendum, as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t want one either. However, it is now only a best 6/4 with Betfred that the British population get the chance to change their mind about leaving Europe. Coral are offering 13/8 that another EU Referendum will be held before the end of 2019 but it is 4/1 that Britain revokes Article 50, the mechanism by which the UK leaves the EU, before March 30 and cancels Brexit altogether. This doesn’t include a postponement of Article 50 in order to negotiate a different deal to the one agreed by Theresa May.
Betfred are quoting 4/9 that Mrs May leaves Downing Street in 2019. She’s already said that she won’t lead the Conservatives into the next General Election, a concession she hoped would get her EU exit deal through Parliament, but may be forced out much sooner if a vote of no confidence is tabled against her government and that could be as soon as this week. The Conservatives, themselves, can not force her out for another 12 months in a leadership election but there comes a point when her closest advisers will tell her enough is enough if she continues to preside over government that can’t win any meaningful votes in the House Of Commons. Jeremy Corbyn is 11/2 with Betway to be the Next British PM with Boris Johnson at 7/1 and Sajid Javid at a best 15/2.
Next British Prime Minster Best Odds
Jeremy Corbyn 11/2
Boris Johnson 7/1
Sajid Javid 15/2
Dominic Raab 11/1
Jeremy Hunt and David Lidington 12/1
Michael Gove 14/1
Jacob Rees-Mogg 25/1
Penny Mordaunt, David Davis and Andrea Ledsom 33/1
Geoffrey Cox and Emily Thornberry 50/1
Phillip Hammond, Matthew Hancock and Esther McVey 66/1
Tom Tugendhat 80/1
(Odds correct at 9.45am January 14)
