Brexit Deal Odds as the October 31st deadline approaches

Deal or No Deal Brexit Odds?

Bookmakers still have Brexit Deal odds as the clear favourite option in the ongoing withdrawal drama between the UK and Europe. PM Boris Johson saw another spanner thrown in the works of his plans on the weekend. He was once again defeated in Parliament.

Brexit No Deal Odds*

NO – (Agreement ratified, Article 50 extended or revoked) – 1/12 odds
YES (to leave in 2019) – 6/1 odds
*( Betting odds taekn from Betfair on Ocotber 20th, 2019 at 19:12)

Brexit Betting at Betfair

No Meaningful Vote – Yet

So more confusion and delays have cropped up in Brexit. Saturday never even saw the meaningful vote happen. That is the vote to back or not back Boris Johnson’s new deal with the EU. That was because the Government was narrowly defeated in a different vote (Letwin amendment), which delays Brexit until all necessary UK laws for it are passed in Parliament.

So the Letwin amendment was narrowly passed 322 to 306. The timing of it forced PM Johnson to send a letter to Brussels to ask for an extension, as set out in the recent Benn Act. However, not even that was straight forward. Johnson sent the letter unsigned, followed by another letter which he did sign, explaining that he didn’t think that the EU should grant an extension.

The meaningful vote on the amended Withdrawal Agreement could happen on Monday, October 21st. But any support that MP’s give in voting for the deal, has to be withheld now until all the legislation which the deal would implement, has passed through both Parliament and the House of Lords.

No Deal Brexit on October 31st

Nothing has changed from the position of the UK leaving the EU on October 31st at 11.00 pm. That’s what is standing unless the EU grants the extension or the PM can get a deal done. Parliament could still vote in favour of Johnson’s new amendment Withdrawal agreement. But,if the legislation for it doesn’t pass Parliament and Lords, the UK would crash out of the EU on that October 31st date.

So everything is still completely up in the air. There is still a risk of it happening. Brexit No Deal odds are at 6/1 odds to happen*( Betting odds taekn from Betfair on Ocotber 20th, 2019 at 19:12). That means the UK crashing out of Europe on October 31st with no Withdrawal Agreement in place. That seems to be the worst situation possible for the majority of Parliament. The opposition has fought what they believe is the PM’s ambition to just happen.

Benn Act Extension

The Benn Act has forced the PM to ask Brussels for a three-month extension. Johnson doesn’t want that and set out in a letter of his own, that the EU shouldn’t give them one. All members of the European Union have to agree to the extension. If they decide not too, it only leaves things until October 31st to get a new deal and all pertinent legislation done.

But over the last week, the course of action has seen Johnson aggressively push his amended agreement, which the EU was happy with. So the Brexit Deal odds are sat at 1/12 at the moment because of this fervent push to get the new deal through*( Betting odds taekn from Betfair on Ocotber 20th, 2019 at 19:12). It looks the more likely route of action.

The 1/12 Brexit Deal odds at Betfair covers a Withdrawal Agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 Revoked*( Betting odds taekn from Betfair on Ocotber 20th, 2019 at 19:12).


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