Brexit Super Saturday Betting – The Meaningful Vote

What next for the on-going Brexit saga?

The Brexit saga drags on and Saturday, October 19th is going to be another huge moment of this political intrigue. This week PM Boris Johson announced out of the blue that he had come to an agreement with Brussels over a Brexit deal that would keep everybody happy.

But of course, this is Brexit where nothing is straightforward and no, not everyone is happy. The big stumbling block over Brexit is about Northern Ireland backstop. This is the debate over whether or not there has to be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

The DUP (Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland) are flat out refusing to back the new deal. With Boris Johnson not holding a working majority in Parliament, that, of course, makes things even more difficult. The DUP are not happy about the customs regulations that affect Northern Ireland in the new deal.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said the deal is worse than Theresa May’s and Nigel Farage has been another strong vocal opponent of the new deal, literally telling Parliament or reject it. The Lib Dems have taken on the direction of opposing Brexit in its entirety. So who knows which way this is going to swing?

The Vote

Saturday will see Parliament vote on whether to accept the new Brexit agreement deal. Former PM Theresa May worked for a couple of years trying to get a Brexit deal done but was repeatedly shut down in Parliament. Reports are that the new deal is 95% the same as what May was trying to get through, the main changes being to the Backstop.

So Boris Johnson has 287 Conservative MPs. The magic number to win a vote is 320. So he needs help, and that 287 is by no means set in stone, because there has been major rebellions in the Tory Party to Johnson, particularly in siding with the opposition to pass legislation to ensure that the UK doesn’t just crash out with no Brexit deal done at the end of the month.

Will the UK Leave on 31st October 2019?

The favourite option is here the No, shortening to 4/9 with Betfair on Friday*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm). Again with Brexit, nothing is simple. If Boris Johson was to win his vote on Saturday, there is still a process to get through. The deal will have to go to the House of Lords. It would then need to be ratified by the EU Parliament. The general consensus is that even if the deal on Saturday is passed, there just wouldn’t be enough time to go through the whole finalisation process. So an extension is still likely to dot the I’s and cross the T’s.

Of course, if the deal is shouted down in Parliament that’s a whole other issue. The Benn Act, which is the legislation that forces the PM to ask for a three-month extension to complete a Brexit deal, would come into play. The Benn Act gives Johnson only until October 19th, which is why Parliament is sitting on a Saturday for the first time since the Falklands War, to secure a deal. If not, he has to go and ask the EU for that extension. It was done as an anti-no deal step to ensure that the UK doesn’t crash out of the Union with no deal.

Yes 4/5
No 11/10
*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm)

Saturday’s Meaningful Vote – Will it pass?

Saturday’s vote is at 4/6 for Yes and 11/10 for No*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm). So the bookmakers think that there is a slight chance that this could get through. It’s complicated of course and such a huge, momentous vote. Will Johnson get the support that he needs, or will have to face more humiliation in rebellions from within his own party?

That leads to another interesting betting section, the margin of victory, were the vote to be passed. This is Brexit and things are expected to be pretty close when the votes are tallied up. The Withdrawal Agreement Vote Margin betting section is at 6/4 to ‘Pass with less than 10 majority’, with the ‘Fail with less than 10 majority’ option at 9/4 with Ladbrokes*(betting odds taken from Ladbrokes on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm).

Brexit Date?

With everything still up in the air a lot will hinge on what happens in Parliament on Saturday. For the Withdrawal to happen in the remainder of 2019 you are looking at a quote of 4/5 and that will have to roll with the vote being passed on the weekend*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm).

If it’s not and then the complications of the Benn Act coming in and potentially causing a lengthy delay while the EU decides whether or not to give the UK an extension, it will push things towards the option of 7/2 on January 2020-March 2020 as being a likely Brexit date*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm).

The interesting option here is No Brexit by 2022 at 4/1 odds*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm). If Johnson fails to get the support, then not only the Benn Act but other issues could come into play. A loss for Johnson could lead to a vote of No Confidence to try and bring down the Government. There is also the potential of a second referendum or an election as well. Things could really get even messier in regards to timing.

There is a quote of 4/7 at Betfair on a Second No Confidence Vote in the Government to take place in 2019, the first being having been aimed at Theresa May earlier this year*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm).

October 2019 – December 2019 at 4/5
January 2020 – March 2020 at 7/2
Not before 2022 at 4/1
April 2020 – June 2020 at 8/1
October 2020 – December 2020 11/1
July 20202 – September 2020 11/1
*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm)

To Happen First

Rarely has Politics gripped a nation so firmly and offered such a wide array of betting markets all one subject. It has been some rollercoaster has Brexit and the end may not be quiet in sight just yet.

UK To Extend Article 50 Period beyond 31 October 2019 at 4/6
To Leave EU With A Different Withdrawal Agreement 9/4
UK To Leave EU Without A Withdrawal Agreement 4/1
UK To Set A Date For a Referendum On Brexit 15/1
*(betting odds taken from Betfair on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm)

Next General Election

The likelihood of there being a General election in December 2019 has drifted to 5/2 with Betfred*(betting odds taken from Betfred on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm) That leaves the outright favourite option running as the 4/9 quote on 2020 or later being the date of the next General election. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is clear 9/4 favourite with Bet365 to become the next Prime Minister*(betting odds taken from Bet365 on October 18th, 2019 at 7:18 pm).


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