Coral Welsh Grand National Odds and Preview – Horse Racing Betting December 27

Now is the time to follow McGinty

Horse Racing Betting

Though the Coral Welsh Grand National is run over 3m6f, it is a shorter distance than both the Aintree Grand National and Scottish Grand National.

It’s traditional slot two days after Christmas means that it is rarely run on anything but soft or heavy going, however, meaning it is often arguably more of a stamina test than either of it’s counterparts run in April. It’s not uncommon for more than half of the field to fail to finish at Chepstow (a maximum of 10 have completed in five of the last seven years).
Horse Racing Betting at Coral

Coral Welsh Grand National History and Trends

The Coral Welsh Grand National is the big betting race over the Christmas period but it wasn’t until 1979 that it was allotted it’s now traditional Festive slot.
First run in 1895, it was staged at the now-defunt Ely racecourse near Cardiff until 1947. After one year at Caerleon, also now no longer a racecourse, it was moved to its present home at Chepstow in 1949.
The race has produced four Cheltenham Gold Cup winners – Burrough Hill Lad, Cool Ground, Master Oats and Synchronised – since the 1980s but is better known as a guide to the Aintree Grand National. Corbiere and Earth Summit completed the double in the same season while Rhyme ‘n’ Reason, in 1998, and Party Politics, in 1992, both finished second at Chepstow before winning on Merseyside.
Horse Racing Betting at William Hill

Big weight is no longer a barrier to success

  • Recent form at Chepstow has become a major factor in the Coral Welsh Grand National in recent seasons.
  • This is generally not a race for fully-exposed staying chasers as only three winners in the last 40 years have been aged 10 or older.
  • No nine-year-old has won since 2003.
  • A big weight has been no barrier to success recently.
  • Notre Pere won the race for Ireland in 2008 and Raz Maree did likewise in 2017.
  • Coin Tizzard has trained the winner in two of the last three years.
  • No chaser trained in the northern half of the UK has won since 1984.
  • All of the last 15 winners had won at least one but no more than five chases previously.
  • The last 16 winners had raced in the previous seven weeks.
  • All of the last 16 winners had won over at least 3m over fences.
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had finished in the first four in their previous race.

Welsh Grand National Winners Last 12 Years

Year Winner Jockey Trainer Age Weight SP Official Rating
2007 Miko De Beauchene Andrew Thornton R H Alner 7 10-5 13/2 135
2008 Notre Pere A E Lynch J T R Dreaper 7 11-0 16/1 152
2009 Dream Alliance Tom O’Brien Philip Hobbs 8 10-8 20/1 142
2010 Synchronised A P McCoy Jonjo O’Neill 8 11-6 5/1 150
2011 Le Beau Bai Charlie Poste Richard Lee 8 10-1 10/1 131
2012 Monbeg Dude Paul Carberry Michael Scudamore 8 10-1 10/1 128
2013 Mountainous Paul Moloney Richard Lee 8 10-0 20/1 137
2014 Emperor’s Choice Aidan Coleman Venetia Williams 7 10-8 9/1 131
2015 Mountainous Jamie Moore Kerry Lee 11 10-6 9/1 132
2016 Native River Richard Johnson Colin Tizzard 6 11-12 11/4 155
2017 Raz De Maree James Bowen Gavin Cromwell 13 10-10 16/1 140
2018 Elegant Escape Tom O’Brien Colin Tizzard 6 11-8 3/1 151

Colin Tizzard knows what it takes to win the Coral Welsh Grand National. He has trained two of the last three winners and both carried big weights. Elegant Escape is bidding to win the race for the second year running under 11st 12lb but the bookmakers are taking no chances with the seven-year-old only a best 4/1 with William Hill.
A very strong stayer, The Two Amigos makes plenty of each-way appeal at a general 20/1. Nicky Martin is not a big name among the training ranks but placed his gelding well to win three times last season after a successful career in point-to-points. He’s already won over an extended 3m6f at Exeter and conditions won’t be a problem.
Arthur’s Gift is possibly overpriced at a general 33/1, despite having won only once so far over fences. He’s not really proved beyond 3m but does give the impression he will stay and his trainer has saddled the winner of this in the past.
NOW MCGINTY faced a very stiff task against Santini on his return to action at Sandown so the fact that he was only beaten a head bodes well back in a handicap. He beat recent Ladbrokes Trophy Chase winner De Rasher Counter at Chepstow last season before finishing second in a Grade 2 at Ascot so his form looks rock-solid and it’s no wonder he has been backed into a general 5/1.

Coral Welsh Grand National Current Best Odds

Elegant Escape 4/1, Now Mcginty 5/1, Truckers Lodge 7/1, Potters Corner 15/2, Yala Enki 10/1, West Approach 12/1, Prime Venture 16/1, Captain Chaos, Pobbles Bay and The Two Amigos 20/1, Arthur’s Gift and Virginia Chick 33/1, Pop Rockstar and Space Cadet 40/1, Field Exhibition 50/1, Rathlin Rose 66/1, Looks Like Power 100/1

(Odds correct at 2.45pm December 26)

 


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