The Coral Welsh Grand National is run over 3m6f, a shorter distance than both the Aintree Grand National and Scottish Grand National. However, it’s traditional slot in the days after Christmas means that it is rarely run on anything but soft or heavy going. It is, therefore, arguably more of a stamina test than either of it’s counterparts run in April and it’s not uncommon for more than half of the field to fail to finish at Chepstow (a maximum of nine have completed in four of the last six years and only seven of 20 maximum runners finished last season when the race had to be rescheduled to January because of adverse weather).
Coral Welsh Grand National History and Trends
The Coral Welsh Grand National is the big betting race over the Christmas period but it wasn’t until 1979 that it was allotted it’s now traditional Festive slot.
First run in 1895, it was run at the now-defunt Ely racecourse near Cardiff until 1947. After one year at Caerleon, also now no longer a racecourse, it was moved to its present home at Chepstow in 1949.
The race has produced four Cheltenham Gold Cup winners – Burrough Hill Lad, Cool Ground, Master Oats and Synchronised – since the 1980s but is better known as a guide to the Aintree Grand National. Corbiere and Earth Summit completed the double in the same season while Rhyme ‘n’ Reason, in 1998, and Party Politics, in 1992, both finished second at Chepstow before winning on Merseyside.
- Recent form at Chepstow has become a major factor in the Coral Welsh Grand National in recent seasons and winning form at the track is also a plus.
- This is generally not a race for fully-exposed staying chasers as only three winners in the last 40 years have been aged 10 or older.
- No nine-year-old has won since 2003.
- Only two winners since the turn of the century have carried more than 11st.
- Notre Pere won the race for Ireland in 2008 and Raz Maree did likewise last year.
- No chaser trained in the northern half of the UK has won since 1984.
- All of the last 15 winners had won at least one but no more than five chases previously.
- The last 15 winners had raced in the previous seven weeks.
- All of the last 15 winners had won over at least 3m over fences.
- 13 of the last 15 winners had finished in the first four in their previous race.
Raz De Maree was a shock winner last season but it would be an even bigger surprise if the teenager won this year as he’s been in woeful form since.
Colin Tizzard sent out the six-year-old Native River to win this two years ago. ELEGANT ESCAPE still has some improving to do to match the exploits of his Gold Cup-winning stablemate but he also still has time on his side. He was second in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury at the start of the month, when effectively 4lb higher, and placed in Grade 1 novice events last season after beating Chepstow specialist Ramses De Teillee (13/2 with Ladbrokes) by 13 lengths at Exeter so looks the one to beat. I wouldn’t be put off by best odds of only 5/1.
Nigel Twiston-Davies last trained the winners of the Welsh National in 2003 but Ballyoptic (a general 14/1) should give a good account, despite top weight, and Ramses De Teillee’s stable companion Vieux Lion Rouge looks a decent each-way bet at the same odds.
Vyta Du Roc, who has been quite lightly raced, looks overpriced at a general 20/1 given connections and, further down the handicap, Dawson City (33/1 with the sponsors) has sound place prospects given he’ll stay every inch of the trip and is generally a sound jumper.
Coral Welsh Grand National Current Best Odds
Elegant Escape 5/1, Ramses De Teillee 13/2, Folsom Blue 8/1, Baie Des Iles and Vintage Clouds 10/1, Looksnowtlikebrian, Ballyoptic and Vieux Lion Rouge 14/1, Rons Dream and Final Nudge 16/1, Vyta Du Roc, Yala Enki and Raz De Maree 20/1, Regal Flow and Kansas City Chief 25/1, Dawson City 33/1, Holly Bush Henry 40/1, Jennys Surprise and Mysteree 50/1, Lieutenant Colonel 100/1
(Odds correct at 2.15pm December 26)
